Wisconsin (9-2) at Minnesota (10-1)
When: Saturday, November 30th 2019
Where: TCF Bank Stadium,
Minneapolis, MN
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Wisconsin -2/50
Minnesota Golden Gopher fans were a little upset when ESPN’s College GameDay chose Baton Rouge over Minneapolis a few weeks ago, but now they get their moment. Minnesota will host longtime rival Wisconsin this Saturday with a lot more than Paul Bunyan’s Axe on the line. The Badgers have two losses on the season and one of them was to No. 2 Ohio State 38-7 at the end of October and a win over the Gophers would put Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game against the Buckeyes next week. Minnesota has a lot more to play for than just their first ever trip to the conference title game. The Golden Gophers still have a pretty decent shot at making the College Football Playoffs should they win Saturday and then beat Ohio State next week. Minnesota bounced back from a 23-19 loss at Iowa with a 38-22 triumph at Northwestern last week to maintain their one-game lead at the top of the West Division standings. Wisky cruised past Purdue 45-24 to set up a winner-take-all clash in one of the most important editions of the rivalry to date. The Badgers have won three consecutive games since dropping back-to-back contests last month, and hope to avenge a 37-15 loss to the Golden Gophers last season, which snapped their 14-game winning streak in the series.
The Badgers are all about running the football and wearing down defenses and that’s exactly what they did last week to Purdue. Wisconsin racked-up 606 yards of offense – the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. Running back Jonathan Taylor recorded 222 yards on the ground to go along with a touchdown in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career and third time in a row. Quarterback Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and a pair of touchdowns for a Wisconsin passing attack that ranks just 102nd in the country. The defense is fantastic, ranking in the top 10 in passing, rushing, and points allowed (14.4), while recording four shutouts this season. Cornerback Faion Hicks and Cole Van Lanen are both questionable with head injuries while safety Collin Wilder will miss the first half after he was ejected for targeting against the Boilermakers.
Head coach PJ Fleck turned around the Western Michigan football team and is doing the same in Minnesota. The Gophers have won 14 of its last 17 games dating back to last season and are in position for big things with a win Saturday. Quarterback Tanner Morgan, who is sixth in FBS with an 84.3 Total QBR, threw for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26 on the season. He has a talented group of wide receivers at his disposal including Tyler Johnson, who has at least one reception in 34 straight games. Johnson hauled in seven passes for 125 yards and a touchdown while Rashod Bateman added seven for 78 yards and Morgan’s other three TDs against the Wildcats. Minnesota ranks 10th in the country in overall defense and are even better against the pass, allowing just 176.3 yards a game through the air.
Don’t look at Wisconsin’s overall defensive numbers, because they’re a bit skewed against horrible teams. They have allowed 21 points or more in five straight games and the Gophers have the offense to add to that streak. I think Minnesota makes enough stops on defense to win this game.
Pick: Minnesota +2.5 (More Week 14 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Badgers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Badgers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games.
Badgers are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Badgers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
Badgers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Badgers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Golden Gophers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
Golden Gophers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Golden Gophers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games in November.
Over is 13-3 in Badgers last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games in November.
Under is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Under is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 road games.
Under is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-1 in Golden Gophers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 conference games.
Under is 7-2 in Golden Gophers last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 15-4 in the last 19 meetings.
Underdog is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
