Wisconsin (12-1) at Miami FL (10-2)
When: Saturday, December 30th 2017
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Wisconsin -6/45
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Two teams that exceeded expectations this season will meet in the 2017 Orange Bowl on Saturday as the Wisconsin Badgers battle the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium. The regular season ended on sour notes for both No. 6 Wisconsin and No. 11 Miami as their dreams of earning a spot in the College Football Playoff came crashing to a halt with poor showings in their conference championship games. The Badgers will look to bounce back from their only loss of the season after they fell to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game – a year after losing the conference title to Penn State – while the Hurricanes look to pick themselves up after consecutive losses to Pittsburgh and Clemson (in the ACC title game) to end the regular season. The Badgers and Hurricanes are both led by their defenses but both units were smoked in their respective title games. Miami’s usually formidable defense barely put up a fight in giving up 38 points to Clemson – more than double the 18.3 points the Hurricanes allowed in their first 11 games. The Badgers were pushed around by Ohio State, and their defense – the nation’s stingiest in allowing 236.9 yards per game during its 12-0 start – gave up far too many big plays and allowed 449 total yards for the game. Head coaches Paul Chryst (Badgers) and Mark Richt (Hurricanes) were recognized for their accomplishments this season, and were named Coach of the Year for the Big Ten and ACC, respectively. Chryst guided the Badgers to their first 12-0 regular season in school history, while Richt’s Hurricanes made an even more dramatic climb to its first-ever ACC Coastal Division title and its first 10-win season since 2003. The Badgers defeated Miami 20-14 in the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl in their only previous postseason encounter.
The Badgers offense is usually focused on the running game and this year was no different as Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1,847 yards and he needs just 79 more to break Adrian Peterson’s single-season FBS freshman record set in 2004. Taylor, who finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting, was held to a season-low 41 yards by Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, almost 110 yards less than the 150.5 yards he averaged entering the game. The Badgers posses a tenacious defense that ranked third in the nation with just 13.2 points allowed per game and scored six defensive touchdowns – tied for most in the country. Wisconsin also set a school record with 21 different players scoring a touchdown this season.
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Quarterback Malik Rosier accounted for 30 total touchdowns in 2017, tying Vinny Testaverde’s single-season school record (1986). Rosier was terrific in wins over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, but looked overwhelmed in the back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Clemson. The offense ended up averaging just 223 yards in those two losses, including just 74.5 on the ground. What didn’t help was that two of the team’s top three pass catchers – tight end Christopher Herndon and receiver Ahmmon Richards – were lost for the season right before the title game. The defense, which is this team’s bread and butter, will need to keep up their intensity, which featured 16 different players wearing the famed “Turnover Chain” during the year. The unit forced just three turnovers in the two losses after forcing 19 in the prior five games.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
Even though Wisconsin is the better team in my opinion – playing a true road game in the postseason is going to be awfully tough. Miami’s resurgent program has brought the fans back to south Florida and they are excited to see their team one more time this year. I’ll take the points in what should be a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Miami FL +6
TRENDS:
- Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Badgers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
- Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Badgers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Hurricanes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Hurricanes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Hurricanes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
- Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
- Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
- Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
- Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Hurricanes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Badgers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Badgers last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Badgers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Badgers last 5 Bowl games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Badgers last 5 bowl games.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Badgers last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Badgers last 10 non-conference games.
- Over is 14-6-1 in Badgers last 21 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 Bowl games.
- Under is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games in December.
- Under is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 bowl games.
- Under is 9-1 in Hurricanes last 10 games on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Hurricanes last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 16-5 in Hurricanes last 21 games overall.
- Under is 45-20 in Hurricanes last 65 non-conference games.
- Over is 11-5 in Hurricanes last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 35-16 in Hurricanes last 51 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
