The new NFL season is just around the corner and tipsters everywhere are readying their reports and preparing for an action-packed season. But how do you know which tipsters to follow? Where can you find the most reliable NFL picks and what do you need to know about following these predictions?
Here’s what you need to know.
Check Previous Tips
Whether you’re following tips posted in a newspaper, on a message board, or on a website, the first thing you should do is check their previous tips.
Did they make any correct predictions? Do those wins outnumber the losses?
Don’t just check one or two games, as that won’t tell you much either way. Look back over the last few game weeks and calculate the results based on the recommended bets. If there are no recommended bets, just imagine that you were wagering $10 on each outcome and then add together your total wagers and returns.
You’re not looking for huge payouts here. The only thing that matters is that the tipster can turn a profit.
Be Wary of Social Media Tipsters
There are a lot of sports betting tipsters advertising their services on Instagram. Their feeds are full of winning sports picks, bundles of cash, and luxury goods, and it’s all designed to convince you that they have made their millions betting on sports.
In reality, they’re either greatly exaggerating their wealth (often by using rented goods and fake cash) or they have earned their money through other means. Oftentimes, that money comes from sports betting courses and packages. In other words, sports betting is not the business; you are the business.
As for the winning tickets, they are usually legitimate, but you’re only seeing what they want you to see. If they win 10 bets and lose 11, you might see all of the winning tickets and none of the losing ones. Some tipsters will show a couple of losing tickets to make their predictions seem legitimate, but you won’t see them all.
Think about it this way: If they really were making millions betting on sports, why would they expend so much effort trying to sell you a $50 package?
There are professional and profitable sports bettors out there, but they don’t waste their time making courses and trying to sell you their tips for a few dollars. In most cases, these sports bettors keep a very low profile, as they often struggle to find companies that will take their bets.
Do Your Own Research
Tips are great if you’re uncertain about a bet and just need a push in the right direction. They’re also good for newcomers who want to place a bet but don’t really know anything about the teams or players. But they shouldn’t be blindly followed.
Read the previews, consider the predictions, and then make your own decision.
Do you agree that the quarterback is due a big game or do you think they’ll have another flop? Do you believe that it’ll be a high-scoring game or do you think the tipster’s logic is flawed?
Remember, they don’t know everything and they are making a lot of assumptions. If you think differently, then you should be betting differently.
Of course, if you’re wrong and the tipster is right, you’ll be pretty annoyed with yourself. But you’ll be even more annoyed if you blindly follow the tipster and then discover that your doubts weren’t unfounded.
By reading those previews and then making up your own mind, not only will you be more accountable, but it’ll also help you to make more informed decisions in the future. After all, the goal is to reach a point where you can out-tip the tipsters and become a profitable sports bettor using your own analyses.
Don’t Feel Like You Need to Bet on Everything
There are stacks of top tips for every single game of the NFL season, but you don’t need to bet on all of them.
We recommend reading the latest NFL tips and then cherry-picking the best ones. Oftentimes, tipsters will be asked to give their thoughts on all games, but they will only feel really strongly about a couple of them. They are the ones that you want to bet on, so single them out and place those wagers.
Follow the Right Betting Strategies
There are a number of sports betting strategies out there and while none of them will guarantee a return, they will all increase your chances.
These strategies all revolve around how much you should be wagering per bet.
The simplest strategies tell you to place the same wager on every single bet, regardless of the odds or how strongly you feel about it. The best strategies require you to adjust your wager based on how likely it is to win.
If, for instance, you start with a wager of $10, you might increase this to $30 or $40 if you feel that a certain bet is undervalued and has a 90% chance of succeeding. But if you’re betting on something that is closer to 50/50, you should stick with a modest $10.
Some strategies use a specific calculation, requiring you to predict the likelihood of success and then use this to set your wager. But they can be risky, as they often greatly inflate your wager and mean you’re betting most of your bankroll on a single bet.
Keep it simple. Find a comfortable stake and increase it slightly when you are more confident of success.
Summary: Follow Reliable NFL Picks
There are a lot of tipsters out there, and all of them can’t be right. So, keep the above tips in mind and use them to find reliable advice. And remember, even the best tipsters get things wrong every now and then.
No one can predict the outcome of every game. Even if they make all the right calls regarding form, performances, weather, and other variables, they still can’t account for luck. So, don’t give up on a tipster just because they get one thing wrong.
As long as they are right for the majority of their predictions, you can make a profit in the long run.