Generally speaking sportsbooks don’t get much wrong, yet they are often caught out when the favorite loses. When they give out sports lines, be it NFL, MLB or NHL, the sportsbooks will simply look at probabilities, they will use an algorithm which offers up the perfect odds based on the teams which are playing and then they will tweak that based on form, location and other individual variables which could change the potential result. Many gamblers enjoy betting against the favorite and whilst of course it offers more value, it is naturally fraught with danger.
If you do wish to bet against the favorite, you’ll have to know your stuff, and here is what you should know.
Fitness Levels
It goes without saying that your NBA or NFL team who you are backing should have their full team selection available, but beyond this you need to know that fitness levels are where they should be. Even if you have a feeling that the underdog will win and that they bookies have it wrong, you have to be sure that you team is firing on all cylinders and fitness is absolutely key to that.
Vision of Winning
It is one thing for your gut to fancy the upset but your brain has to be engaged too. What this means in basic terms is that you have to actually be able to see where the win is coming from. If the Warriors outmatch the Pelicans player for player then where is then win coming from? If however you are looking at both PGs and thinking that you team has the advantage then fair enough, beyond this, don’t bet on the upset unless you can actually see it taking place.
Outside Conditions
Those who get these sort of picks right are either chancers who usually lose more than they win when you look at the big picture, or those in the know. There is nothing you shouldn’t know about the team going into a bet like this and that includes all external impacts. What is morale like, how do players feel, are they happy, what is the form like, how do they play under the weather conditions and do they enjoy playing in certain stadiums? All of these questions and more are relevant when it comes to picking an a team who will cause an upset.
Don’t Go Crazy
If you are backing the underdog at +1000 then you are going to be easily tempted to place a $100 bet on in order to win more, but it is important that you pay no mind to your potential winnings. Accept that you are betting on the underdog and go small with your bets. There is after all a reason why this is such an underdog, and no matter how you feel, the sportsbooks get this right far more often than they get it wrong.
Knowledge is everything when you are putting bets like this on.
