Washington (10-2) vs Penn State (10-2)
When: Saturday, December 30th 2017
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Time: 4:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Penn State -2/56
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Two teams who had aspirations of reach the College Football Playoffs will battle in the Fiesta Bowl as the Washington Huskies and Penn State Nittany Lions tangle in the desert. Penn State has a long history in the Phoenix area and will try to improve to 7-0 all-time in the Fiesta Bowl, while the Huskies will be making their first appearance. Not making his first appearance in this bowl game will be Washington head coach Chris Petersen, who guided Boise State to Fiesta Bowl wins and undefeated seasons in 2006 and 2009. Both teams suffered two single-digit losses on the road, which was just enough to keep them on the outside of the playoff picture this season. It will be a battle of dynamic junior running backs who could be playing their final games, as Washington’s Myles Gaskin faces off against Penn State’s do-everything Saquon Barkley. Gaskin needs 18 rushing yards for his third straight 1,300-yard season and his 19 touchdowns on the ground ranks third nationally, while Barkley has claimed consecutive Big Ten MVP awards and also has three 1,000-year seasons to his credit. Barkley recorded 249 total yards and three TDs in last year’s Rose Bowl loss to USC, but Gaskin was limited to 34 yards rushing on 10 carries in the CFP semifinal loss to Alabama.
Junior quarterback Jake Browning took a step back from his great 2016 season with a dip of nearly 900 yards and 25 touchdowns, but he is the school’s all-time leader with 77 scoring strikes and is on the verge of becoming its second 9,000-yard career passer. He will need a big day in order to keep up with the Nittany Lions on Saturday. Browning’s favorite target is senior Dante Pettis with 721 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, while also recording nine career punt returns for scores. The Huskies defense, which ranks sixth in total defense (278.3) and fifth in scoring (14.5), is led by 340-pound lineman Vita Vea, a likely first-round selection in the upcoming NFL Draft. Washington also owns the second-ranked defense against the run at 93.2 yards a game.
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Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley led the Big Ten in passing (3,228 yards) and added 431 yards and 11 TDs on the ground to guide the nation’s seventh-ranked scoring attack (41.6 points). McSorley threw three interceptions in the Rose Bowl last year and did the same in the Lions’ second loss at Michigan State on November 4th, but he threw for seven scores – with no picks – and ran for three more in the final three games of the regular season. McSorley, who has already appeared on lists of 2018 Heisman Trophy favorites, needs 186 passing yards to move into second all-time at Penn State and 387 to surpass his own single-season mark of 3,614 set last year.
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Washington was picked to win the Pac-12 and get back into the playoffs, but they didn’t even reach their own conference title game and fans see this as a down year. Penn State knew it was going to be tough to crack the final four and should be a little more motivated in this one. Expect a lot of Penn State fans in Glendale for this one. The Nittany Lions defense will prove to be the deciding factor in this one.
Pick: Penn State -2
TRENDS:
- Huskies are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Huskies are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Huskies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
- Nittany Lions are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Nittany Lions are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
- Nittany Lions are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 9-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nittany Lions are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
- Nittany Lions are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Nittany Lions are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
- Nittany Lions are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win.
- Nittany Lions are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Huskies last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 neutral site games.
- Under is 9-2 in Huskies last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games overall.
- Under is 8-2 in Huskies last 10 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-2 in Huskies last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Huskies last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 12-5 in Huskies last 17 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 neutral site games.
- Over is 14-3 in Nittany Lions last 17 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 vs. Pac-12.
- Over is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last 7 non-conference games.
- Over is 7-3 in Nittany Lions last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 7-3 in Nittany Lions last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 9-4 in Nittany Lions last 13 games following a ATS win.
