Golden State (0-1) at Sacramento (1-0)
When: Monday, April 17th 2023
Where: Golden 1 Center,
Sacramento, CA
Time: 10:00 ET | TV: TNT
Opening Odds: Sacramento -1/240
One of the most anticipated round one matchups didn’t disappoint on Saturday night between the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings. It was an epic game with a thrilling ending that saw the Kings prevail in their first playoff home game in 17 years. Sacramento did not play their best game and were down by as many as 10 points, were outshot 47.8 percent to 44.9 percent and were outscored 48-36 on 3-pointers.
Still, De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk came up clutch in the second half and the Kings will look to hold homecourt in Game 2 on Monday night. The Warriors are not used to losing a Game 1 in the postseason under head coach Steve Kerr. They have now lost just four such games and came back to win the previous three Game 2s.
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The Kings went up by three points late in the fourth quarter and Steph Curry had a chance to send the game to overtime, but his 3-pointer hit off the rim as time expired. Sacramento closed as a 1-point favorite in Game 1, but the oddsmakers and public are banking on the Warriors in Game 2. Golden State is now a 1-point favorite to take the series back to the Bay Area with a total of 240.
The Warriors are the least profitable road team in the NBA. They are 12-30 against the spread (ATS) with a return on investment (ROI) of -45.45%. They failed to cover Game 1 and are now 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games. Golden State is also just 1-4 ATS versus the Kings in their previous five meetings. The Over is 26-12-1 in Sacramento’s last 39 home games.
Andrew Wiggins returned from a 25-game absence for personal reasons and had a chance to give Golden State a two-point lead with 10.3 seconds remaining but misfired on a 3-pointer from the left corner. Wiggins ended the game with 17 points and four blocks, but shot just 1-of-8 from three-point land. Curry led the team with 30 points including 6-of-14 from long range and Klay Thompson made five three-pointers as part of his 21-point performance. Jordan Pool contributed 17 points off the bench in just 21 minutes of action. Golden State has won at least one road game in an NBA-record 27 consecutive series.
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Fox exploded for 38 points, while Monk stunned the Warriors with 32 off the bench to lead Sacramento in Game 1. The Kings prevailed mostly thanks to the clutch shooting of Fox, who made all three of his 3-point attempts during a 15-point fourth quarter. Monk finished the game with a clutch 8-for-8 from the free-throw line and had 13 points in the final period. Those two combined for 28 of the team’s final 35 points. Domantas Sabonis struggled offensively with just 12 points on 5-for-17 shooting, but did contribute a game-high 16 rebounds.
This has all signs of a Golden State win here. The oddsmakers even think so, installing the Warriors as road favorites in Game 2 despite their horrendous road mark this season. They have never lost a Game 2 after losing Game 1 under Kerr and almost 90% of the betting public is on Golden State. I’m going to stick with Sacramento. They played a little nervous in Game 1 and still won the game. They will get more offense out of Sabonis and win Game 2.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free NBA Picks page for today.
Pick: Kings +1
