Virginia vs North Carolina Betting Trends & Free Pick [2/18/17]

By
Jay Cooper
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Virginia (18-7, 8-5) at North Carolina (22-5, 10-3)
When: Saturday, February 18th 2017
Where: Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN

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The North Carolina Tar Heels look to keep their slim lead in the ACC when they host the slumping Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday night. North Carolina faces a brutal stretch of games to close out the regular season including two against the Cavaliers. The Heels will also play Louisville and Duke and tuned up for this contest with an easy 97-73 win over North Carolina State on Wednesday to solidify their one-game advantage on three teams atop the league. Joel Berry II made 7-of-11 from the field including 4-of-8 from 3-point range against N.C. State and averages 15 points to go along with a team-high four assists. Junior guard Justin Jackson (18.5) leads the team in scoring and senior forward Kennedy Meeks (12.6 points, team-best 9.2 rebounds) broke out of a mini-slump by scoring 17 on 8-of-12 from the field against the Wolfpack. Junior Theo Pinson (6.9 points, 5.0 rebounds) started Wednesday in place of sophomore guard Kenny Williams (6.2 points), who is likely out for the season with a knee injury. Sophomore forward Luke Maye has made 15-of-25 from the field over the last four games after scoring 13 against N.C. State.

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Virginia comes in having lost two straight and four of their last six and their strong defense is partly to blame. The Cavaliers still lead the nation in scoring defense (55.5), but have given up 66.5 per game over the last four games after Wednesday’s 65-55 home loss to surging Duke. The Cavaliers usually score points by committee but senior guard London Perrantes is not getting much help of late as he is averaging 15.8 points over the past five games. Perrantes averages 12.6 points and a team-best 3.8 assists while junior guard Marial Shayok is the next biggest threat, scoring 9.6 per game after a 3-for-11 shooting performance against Duke. Junior forward Isaiah Wilkins averages 7.5 points and a team-high 6.4 rebounds after grabbing almost 10 per game over the last three. Freshman guard Kyle Guy leads the ACC in 3-point shooting percentage (48.6) after burying 8-of-14 from long range in the last five games. The Cavaliers, who host the Tar Heels on February 27th, split a pair of meetings with them last season including a 61-57 loss in the ACC Tournament final.

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Virginia doesn’t have enough offense to make up for the recent struggles on defense and North Carolina is still the team to beat in the conference. I expect a tight game for a while, but the Tar Heels will pull away for the win and cover.

Pick: North Carolina -4.5

ATS TRENDS

Virginia
  • Cavaliers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
  • Cavaliers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.
  • Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
  • Cavaliers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog.
  • Cavaliers are 29-11 ATS in their last 40 games as an underdog.
  • Cavaliers are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games overall.
  • Cavaliers are 41-20-3 ATS in their last 64 Saturday games.
North Carolina
  • Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
  • Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Tar Heels are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games.
  • Tar Heels are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite.
  • Tar Heels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
  • Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
  • Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.

OU TRENDS

Virginia
  • Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Under is 6-2-1 in Cavaliers last 9 overall.
  • Under is 54-19-1 in Cavaliers last 74 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
  • Under is 18-7-1 in Cavaliers last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 18-7-1 in Cavaliers last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Under is 20-8-1 in Cavaliers last 29 road games.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Cavaliers last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Under is 10-4-1 in Cavaliers last 15 Saturday games.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Cavaliers last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
  • Under is 36-15-1 in Cavaliers last 52 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.
  • Under is 45-19 in Cavaliers last 64 games as an underdog.
  • Under is 35-16 in Cavaliers last 51 games as a road underdog.
North Carolina
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Tar Heels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Tar Heels last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • Over is 11-2 in Tar Heels last 13 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
  • Over is 5-1 in Tar Heels last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Tar Heels last 6 overall.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Tar Heels last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
  • Under is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Under is 9-3 in Tar Heels last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Under is 8-3 in Tar Heels last 11 games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 8-3 in Tar Heels last 11 home games.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in North Carolina.

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