Virginia (4-1) at Miami FL (2-3)
When: Friday, October 11th 2019
Where: Hard Rock Stadium,
Miami Gardens, FL
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Miami -2.5/43.5
The Virginia Cavaliers had an extra week to lick their wounds from a disappointing performance offensively in a 35-20 loss at Notre Dame and now get back into conference play when they visit the Miami Hurricanes on Friday night at Hard Rock Stadium. The Cavaliers were given every opportunity against the Irish, but the offensive line surrendered eight sacks – one more than the unit allowed in the first four games combined – and resulted in quarterback Bryce Perkins turning the ball over five times (two interceptions, three fumbles). The ACC Coastal Division is wide-open and Virginia has a chance to keep a grip on first place by starting conference play 3-0 for the first time in 12 years. The winner of that division will likely play Clemson later this year in the ACC Championship Game. Miami is picking themselves off the floor after a furious rally came up short in a 42-35 loss at home to Virginia Tech last Saturday. The Hurricanes were down 28 points in the first half until backup quarterback N’Kosi Perry took over from faltering starter Jarren Williams, but the usually solid defense failed to come up with the big stops in key situations. The ‘Canes can’t afford to drop to 0-3 in conference play or they’ll have no shot at playing Clemson in the championship game, and their chances for a bowl berth would take a hit as well. Miami has a slight 9-7 edge in the all-time series, but the Cavaliers won 16-13 at home last season and have won five of the last nine meetings.
Virginia has a very solid defense and a terrific front four that ranks second in the nation with 24 sacks and are stingy against both the pass and run. Overall, the Cavs rank 12th in total defense, 20th against the pass, and 17th versus the run (95.6). Despite Perkins’ miscues against Notre Dame, he managed to throw for 334 yards and two touchdowns and has 1,177 yards passing and eight TDs for the season, along with six interceptions. The rushing attack ranks 117th in FBS with sophomore Wayne Taulapapa leading the way with just 183 yards on the ground and the team is last in the ACC with 107.6 rushing yards per game. Virginia will be home to face Duke next Saturday.
The Hurricanes are not too far behind Virginia when it comes to defense, especially against the run, ranking seventh in the country at 78.8 yards per contest. The unit did a nice job of keeping Miami in the game last week against Virginia Tech, as the offense sputtered, but the defense gave up the winning touchdown with 1:03 left. They also failed to come up with other key stops, as the Hokies went 9-for-16 on third down. Head coach Mammy Diaz indicated that Williams would get the start again at quarterback despite his horrible outing last week. Perry accounted for 422 of Miami’s 469 passing yards last week and will be ready to go should Williams falter again. Miami will host Georgia Tech next weekend.
Miami didn’t play terrible last week overall, they just couldn’t hold onto the ball and the Hokies took advantage of that. I think the Hurricanes defense will prevent Virginia from doing much on offense and the homefield advantage will be the difference.
Pick: Miami -2.5 (More Week 7 Free Picks)
Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
Cavaliers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cavaliers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.
Hurricanes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Hurricanes are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
Over is 10-1 in Cavaliers last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Cavaliers last 9 games in October.
Over is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 Friday games.
Over is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 6-2-1 in Cavaliers last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 28-12 in Cavaliers last 40 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 Friday games.
Under is 7-1 in Hurricanes last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Hurricanes last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Hurricanes last 9 games in October.
Under is 7-2-1 in Hurricanes last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Hurricanes last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-3-1 in Hurricanes last 12 games overall.
Under is 13-5-1 in Hurricanes last 19 conference games.
Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Miami.
Underdog is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.