Virginia (2-1) at Boise State (2-1)
When: Friday, September 22nd 2017
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Boise State -14/51.5
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In a rematch of a game two years ago, the Virginia Cavaliers look for a better effort against the Boise State Broncos when the two teams meet on the blue turf of Albertsons Stadium on Friday night. Virginia quarterback Kurt Benkert is coming off a record-setting effort last week when he threw for a school-record 455 yards in a 38-18 win against Connecticut last Saturday. Virginia hopes to keep that same offensive intensity it didn’t bring in their 56-14 loss in Charlottesville in 2015 against the Broncos. Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall lost twice at Albertsons Stadium while coaching at BYU and he’s seen plenty of footage of the Broncos’ rout in Virginia on September 25th, 2015. Boise State rebounded from a triple-overtime loss to Washington State by recording a 28-14 win over New Mexico in its Mountain West Conference opener last Thursday night.
Three different receivers had at least 122 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win over UConn, led by Doni Dowling (136 yards). Benkert completed 30-of-40 passes and enters this week’s action fourth among ACC quarterbacks in completion percentage (66.2) while sitting third in both yards per game (325.3) and TD passes (seven). Junior running back Jordan Ellis had a season-high 95 yards on the ground and has scored a touchdown in all three Virginia games. Fellow RB Olamide Zaccheaus has 21 catches over the past two games and needs two more to become the 21st player in program history with 100 career grabs. Virginia, who has the 44th-ranked defense in the country, will have a bye next week before opening ACC play against Duke.
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Senior Montell Cozart stepped into the starting role in place of Brett Rypien and threw for two touchdowns while running for another as the Broncos survived a sluggish effort that produced just 264 total yards. Rypien had a streak of 25 consecutive starts snapped last week, a run that started when he threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns at Virginia two season ago. The injury report lists Rypien (concussion) as questionable for Friday’s contest. Both Rypien and Cozart have leaned heavily on senior wide receiver Cedrick Wilson (16 catches, 276 yards), while senior tight end Jake Roh matched his career total with three touchdowns (one rushing) against New Mexico. Defensive tackle David Moa was arrested Saturday on a charge of disturbing the peace and head coach Bryan Harsin would not comment on whether the junior would play Friday.
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This isn’t the same Boise team that we’re used to seeing dominant opponents on the Smurf turf. In fact, the Broncos are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games. Virginia’s offense showed me enough last week to think they can keep this game closer than the experts think.
Pick: Virginia +13
TRENDS:
- Cavaliers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
- Cavaliers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cavaliers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Cavaliers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Cavaliers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cavaliers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC.
- Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
- Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
- Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
- Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
- Broncos are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Cavaliers last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 26-10 in Cavaliers last 36 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4-1 in Cavaliers last 15 road games.
- Under is 25-10 in Cavaliers last 35 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 Friday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games overall.
- Under is 12-3 in Broncos last 15 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 non-conference games.
- Over is 15-6 in Broncos last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 21-10 in Broncos last 31 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 23-11 in Broncos last 34 games following a ATS loss.
