Virginia Tech (9-3) vs Oklahoma State (9-3)
When: Thursday, December 28th 2017
Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Time: 5:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Oklahoma State -6.5/62
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The Oklahoma State Cowboys and Virginia Tech Hokies came up short in their respective conferences, but one of these Power 5 teams will finish the season with 10 wins when they meet in the 2017 Camping World Bowl from Orlando, Florida. This game will feature the top passing unit in the country against one of the strongest defenses against the pass. Quarterback Mason Rudolph, who was once recruited by Virginia Tech, leads the nation’s top passing attack in No. 17 Oklahoma State to challenge the 22nd-ranked Hokies. Rudolph completed 65% of his 457 attempts with 35 touchdowns against nine interceptions and led the FBS in passing yards (4,553) and points responsible for per game (22.5). The Hokies, however, have seen numerous up-tempo, spread offenses this season and haven’t allowed 400 yards passing in any game this season and only two 300-yard games. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 46.9% of their passes for an average of 187.2 yards per game with 14 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente was recruited by current Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy, who was then a graduate assistant with the Cowboys. Hokies offensive line coach Vance Vice played with Gundy in Stillwater from 1986-88 where the two won the 1987 Holiday Bowl and 1988 Liberty Bowl alongside Thurman Thomas and the great Barry Sanders.
Rudolph’s favorite target is one of the best receivers in the nation in James Washington, the ninth unanimous All-American in school history and recipient of the 2017 Biletnikoff Award presented to the nation’s top receiver. He finished the regular season with 69 catches for an FBS-high 1,423 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the senior led all FBS players with 17 catches of 30 yards or longer, 10 catches of 40 yards or longer and seven catches of 50 yards or longer. Needless to say, he’s a dangerous threat for the Virginia Tech defense. Sophomore running back Justice Hill ran for 1,347 yards – the most by a Cowboy in five years – and 14 TDs. Oklahoma State’s defense is pretty good against the run, but were gouged this season through the air to the tune of 268.5 yards a game – 119th in the country.
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Freshman quarterback Josh Jackson, who completed 60.3% of his passes for 2,743 yards with 19 TDs against eight interceptions, will try and take advantage of that weak Cowboy’s defense that allowed nearly 30 points per game and 400 total yards. Running back Travon McMillian, who led the Hokies in rushing (439 yards), decided to transfer and will not play. Virginia Tech suffered a big blow when they found out leading receiver Cam Phillips will not play due to a sports hernia. Phillips led the Hokies with 71 catches, 964 yards, and seven scores. The Hokies have a decided edge in the kicking game, as they rank in the top 30 nationally in all four major special teams categories: punts, punt returns, kickoffs and kickoff returns. Greg Stroman has returned two punts for a touchdown and Virginia Tech is allowing only 42 total yards on punt returns this season.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
It’s offense versus defense in this one. The better defenses usually prevail in these type of games because of the long layoff. I’m really reluctant to take the Hokies here because they won’t have their leading rusher and receiver in this game. But, because the Cowboys defense is so bad, the Hokies might be able to generate some offense. The defense will be the key for Virginia Tech, and I believe they will create problems for Rudolph and company. Its not my favorite bowl pick of the season, but I will go with the Hokies.
Pick: Virginia Tech +6
TRENDS:
- Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Hokies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
- Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Hokies are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 Thursday games.
- Hokies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Cowboys are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Hokies last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Hokies last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Hokies last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 6-0 in Hokies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-1-2 in Hokies last 8 neutral site games.
- Under is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 games in December.
- Under is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 20-6 in Hokies last 26 Thursday games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Hokies last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 games overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Cowboys last 8 games in December.
- Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 16-5-1 in Cowboys last 22 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 20-7 in Cowboys last 27 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 19-7 in Cowboys last 26 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
