Virginia Tech (22-6) at Florida State (23-6)
When: Tuesday, March 5th, 2019
Where: Donald L. Tucker Center,
Tallahassee, Florida
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPNU
Opening Odds: Florida State -3.5/134.5
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The top four teams in the ACC regular season will get a double-bye in the conference tournament next week and the Virginia Tech Hokies and Florida State Seminoles both occupy that spot currently. They will meet Tuesday night in Tallahassee in would could ultimately be the tiebreaker should they both win their regular season finales as expected – the Hokies will be home to Miami (FL), while FSU plays at Wake Forest. The Seminoles started the ACC schedule at 1-4, but have roared back with wins in 10 of their last 11 including a 78-73 win over North Carolina State on Saturday. Florida State has won the last three meetings with Virginia Tech and have not lost at home against the Hokies since 1990 (11 games). Virginia Tech got the weekend off and is coming off a 77-72 upset victory over Duke last Tuesday without third-leading scorer and senior point guard Justin Robinson (foot) for the eighth straight game. The ‘Noles are 14-1 at home this season, but just 6-9 ATS, while the Hokies have won four of their last five road contests.
Virginia Tech is 5-3 without Robinson (14.4 points, team-high 5.4 assists), but the senior could return in time for the ACC Tournament next week. The Hokies are already a lock for the NCAA Tourney and could really use Robinson to make a deep run. Junior forward Kerry Blackshear Jr. is second on the team with 14.9 points per game and a team-best 7.3 rebounds and has really upped his game in Robinson’s absence with 24.3 points and 11.5 rebounds in the past four games. Sophomore guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (16.4 points, team-high 2.1 steals) is averaging 4.4 assists the past five games while handling the ball more recently.
The Seminoles only have two players averaging in double-figures and sophomore forward Mfiondu Kabengele leads the way with 13.2 points per game. Kabengele finished with 16 points, five rebounds and four blocks against N.C. State. Senior guard Terance Mann is next at 11.5 points and also leads the team in rebounding (6.3) while guard M.J. Walker (8.0 points) scored 15 on Saturday. Junior guard Trent Forrest averages a team-high 3.8 assists per game despite playing with a nagging toe injury. Florida State has followed a 5-0 ATS run by failing to cover their last three.
Florida State is on a roll right now, but the Hokies have been really good away from home lately. The Seminoles have looked beatable in their last two home games and that was against opponents not as good as Virginia Tech. I say this game comes down to the final 30 seconds.
Pick: Virginia Tech +4.5
Hokies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games.
Hokies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Hokies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Hokies are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a ATS win.
Hokies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Hokies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Seminoles are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 Tuesday games.
Seminoles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Hokies last 4 games following a straight up win.
Over is 6-1 in Hokies last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 5-1-1 in Hokies last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Over is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Seminoles last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 35-16-2 in Seminoles last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Florida State.
Hokies are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Florida State.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
