Sports betting. It is exhilarating, it is exciting, and it is a chance to prove just how much you know about sports.
This is also a growing trend for Americans, as 19% of adults in the country have participated in sports betting.
If you are someone that is interested in sports betting or you are just getting started, you may be looking for free sports pick advice.
What if you could use advanced stats to your advantage to make free baseball picks? What are some key stats that you need to follow? How much of an edge does it give you?
This guide will answer all of those questions and more.
On-Base Percentage
One statistic that tends to get overlooked in baseball is the on-base percentage of a player. The reason why this may get overlooked is that fans may focus more on a player’s batting average.
What is the difference? Well, a batting average only measures the number of times a player records a hit compared to how many times they record an out.
On-base percentage focuses on every single at-bat. What is not included in the former are the times that a player walks or gets hit by a pitch.
However, at the end of the day, those are still times that a player gets on base and has a chance to score a run for their team. So, having a higher percentage in this category should increase a team’s likelihood of scoring runs.
Barry Bonds is an excellent example of this. Those that remember the late stages of his career know he was one of the most feared hitters in the history of the game.
As a result, he took a lot of walks due to how cautiously teams pitched around him. Bonds set the record for on-base percentage in a single season in 2004 with .609. This means he got on base more than six out of every 10 at-bats!
Let’s look at his batting average to put this in perspective. Admittedly, it is at an impressive .362 in that same season. However, the stat does not truly show how often Bonds got on base that season and how many times he allowed his team to get an extra run on the board.
Slugging Percentage
Another statistic that handicappers should utilize is the slugging percentage. Some may have seen this before but do not understand exactly what this measures.
To put it simply, slugging percentage divides the total amount of bases that a player records per at-bat. This is used to measure power and just how far hits can go for these players. Keep in mind that walks and hit-by-pitches do not go into this equation.
Let’s take a look at Barry Bonds again. In that magical 2004 season, he was putting up historical numbers across the board. While he set the record for on-base percentage, he challenged his own record in slugging percentage.
Bonds put up a .812 slugging percentage in 2004 and holds the record with a .863 slugging percentage in 2001.
What does this mean? It means that Bonds was essentially averaging more than four bases for every five at-bats that he took those seasons (not including walks, hit-by-pitches, or errors).
The way you can use this is to get an idea of what players are more likely to produce hidden power numbers. Are they going to put their team in a scoring position more often than people think?
Use this number to get an idea of how players do in those spots.
Follow Weather Forecasts
When it comes to making baseball picks, you need to look at every factor that gets presented to you. Because a lot of the teams in the league play outside, the weather may become a factor.
An example could be if there are above-average winds in the forecast for the area. That may mean that you want to bet the under for a game. Also, one team or even a starting pitcher could have a better record in those circumstances.
Other weather patterns you should look out for are any rain in the forecast plus above-average temperatures. There may be a competitive edge on one side of the betting line with these factors.
Review the Umpires
Finally, you have to take into consideration who is calling the game. At the end of the day, umpires are humans like everybody else. They are all going to have their own tendencies and some will make mistakes.
An example could be having an umpire behind home plate that is more pitcher-friendly for that game. In that situation, you may consider betting under the run total.
Then, you could have an umpire where home teams have a better winning percentage than road teams. Even if it is just a slight edge, it could still be worth backing the home team in that situation.
Keep an eye on who is calling these games and see if any trends stand out.
Get Your Free Baseball Picks
These are some stats that you should be aware of when it comes to picking baseball games. You need to look at individual player stats that the casual fan barely notices, such as a player’s on-base percentage or slugging percentage.
Also, you need to consider other factors that can impact the game. Examples of this include the weather conditions for a particular game and what the umpire is calling the game behind home plate.
Then, you can make smart baseball picks. Do you want more free sports betting advice? Click here to see our free baseball picks and more.
