USC (4-0, 2-0) at Washington State (4-0, 1-0)
When: Friday, September 29th 2017
Where: Martin Stadium, Pullman, WA
Time: 10:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: USC -6.5/63
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For the first time since 2014, the Southern California Trojans and Washington State Cougars will hook-up for a football game when they meet on Friday night in Pullman. Washington State has won its first four games for the first time since opening the 2001 season with seven straight wins, and USC has won 13 consecutive games, its longest streak since winning 34 in a row from 2003-05. The Cougars will be playing their fifth straight home game to open the season for the first time in school history, and they’ve scored at least 31 points in their first four wins, but haven’t really been tested. Boise State gave them a scare, but the Broncos were destroyed at home the next week, so strength of schedule isn’t something the Cougs can hang their helmets on. USC hasn’t had an easy time in any of its first four victories, but the Trojans are a lot better off than last season, when they opened 1-3, including 0-2 in the Pac-12. That was the stretch when Sam Darnold took over as starting quarterback and he’s gone 13-1 in that role, though he hasn’t had the Heisman Trophy start many expected this season. His completion percentage (67.2) is nearly identical to last season, but he has been intercepted seven times in four games, compared to eight times in 10 games as a starter last season. This is the first matchup between USC and Washington State in which both were unbeaten after at least four games. The Trojans are 19-3-2 in games played in Pullman and the road team has covered the last five meetings.
One reason that Darnold is not living up to Heisman standards is that he’s starting to run out of healthy receivers, and the latest to go down is Deontay Burnett, who is fifth in FBS in receptions (33) and seventh in receiving yards (462). Burnett has a shoulder injury and didn’t practice Monday, leaving his status in doubt against the Cougars. USC is already without its second-best receiver, Steven Mitchell Jr., who missed Saturday’s win against California with a groin injury, and he appears further away from returning than Burnett. The Trojans’ defense is ranked 58th in total yards allowed (370.2) and 64th in points (24.8).
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Luke Falk is in his fourth year as the starting quarterback for the Cougars and he’s off to another big start, thanks to four home games against weak defenses. Falk has completed 76.9% of his passes for 1,378 yards and 14 touchdowns with one interception. His completion percentage is tied for first in the country, his touchdown total is second and his passing yards are fifth. Falk replaced Connor Halliday three years ago against USC, and completed 38-of-57 passes for 346 and two touchdowns in the 44-17 loss. The Cougars defense under Mike Leach is ranked 11th in the nation in total yards allowed per game (263.2).
MIAMI VS DUKE PREVIEW AND PREDICTION
This is a real dangerous spot for a USC team that is not playing their best right now. Washington State has been looking forward to this game for a long time. I think the Wazzu defense will be the key factor tonight in slowing down Darnold and company. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Washington State +3.5
TRENDS:
- Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Trojans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Trojans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Trojans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
- Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cougars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
- Cougars are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 conference games.
- Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
- Cougars are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Trojans last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 9-3 in Trojans last 12 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 22-8-1 in Trojans last 31 conference games.
- Under is 8-3 in Trojans last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 9-4 in Trojans last 13 games overall.
- Under is 35-17-2 in Trojans last 54 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Cougars last 7 conference games.
- Over is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Cougars last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Cougars last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cougars last 5 Friday games.
- Over is 9-3 in Cougars last 12 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Cougars last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Cougars last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 13-5 in Cougars last 18 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 13-5 in Cougars last 18 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 14-6-1 in Cougars last 21 home games.
- Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Washington State.
- Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Washington State.
- Trojans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Favorite is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
