USC (6-1) at Notre Dame (5-1)
When: Saturday, October 21st 2017
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Notre Dame -3/58
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One of the best rivalries in sports continues this weekend as the Southern California Trojans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish meet for the 91st time on Saturday night in South Bend. The Trojans won eight in a row in the series from 2002 to 2009, but haven’t won two straight against the Irish since, something they can accomplish on Saturday. USC has been tied or trailed at the start of the fourth quarter in four of six games this season, but have come away with 93 of its 241 total points (38.6%) in the final frame this season.. The Trojans overcame a seven-point deficit in the final quarter last week against then-No. 23 Utah before holding on for a 28-27 victory when a two-point try by the Utes failed in the final seconds. Notre Dame hasn’t really played any close games, winning those five games by an average of 28 points, but the Fighting Irish came up short in its only meeting against a ranked opponent this season, losing 20-19 to then-No. 15 Georgia on September 9th. Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush sat out his team’s last game against North Carolina two weeks ago because of a right foot injury, but coach Brian Kelly said earlier this week that Wimbush is 100%. No USC players are from Indiana, but 11 for Notre Dame went to high school in California.
The Trojans have taken some pressure off quarterback Sam Darnold with the running of future NFL star Ronald Jones II, who has four 100+ yard rushing efforts this season. He’s also had big games against the Irish in his career as well, running for 134 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in last season’s win, and carrying the ball six times for 73 yards in a 41-31 loss at Notre Dame as a freshman two years ago. He will bring a 9.4 yards per carry statistic against the Irish into this matchup on Saturday. Darnold had his first interception-free game last week against Utah, but the preseason Heisman Trophy candidate had three more fumbles, giving him 10 on the season, the most in the FBS.
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Regardless of Wimbush’s health and mobility, Notre Dame is sure to give a heavy workload to running back Josh Adams, who rushed for 180 yards on 17 carries in last season’s 45-27 loss to USC. Adams surpassed that career high with 229 rushing yards earlier this season against Boston College and he’s gone over 100 yards in three other games this season, posting touchdown runs of 60 yards or more in all four different games. Georgia was the only team thus far able to slow Adams, limiting him to 53 yards on 19 carries for a 2.8 average. Notre Dame ranks ninth in the nation in turnover margin with 14 takeaways against eight turnovers.
This is always an entertaining game between these two programs. It’s too bad it’s on the same time as the Michigan/Penn State game, though. Notre Dame has looked better as a team overall than USC. The Irish did lose at home to Georgia, but it appears the Bulldogs may be one of the top teams in the nation now. I expect the Irish defense to give Darnold all kinds of problems and for them to slow down Jones. USC has been living dangerously all year, and this time, they may take a beating.
Pick: Notre Dame -3
TRENDS:
- Trojans are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
- Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Fighting Irish are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
- Fighting Irish are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games in October.
- Fighting Irish are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Fighting Irish are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
- Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 games in October.
- Under is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games overall.
- Over is 10-4-1 in Trojans last 15 non-conference games.
- Under is 10-4 in Trojans last 14 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Trojans last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Trojans last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 34-16-2 in Trojans last 52 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 games in October.
- Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Fighting Irish last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 vs. Pac-12.
- Over is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-1 in Fighting Irish last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 17-5-1 in Fighting Irish last 23 games following a bye week.
- Over is 6-2 in Fighting Irish last 8 games overall.
- Over is 6-2 in Fighting Irish last 8 non-conference games.
- Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
