UCLA (0-3) at Colorado (3-0)
When: Friday, September 28th 2018
Where: Folsom Field,
Boulder, Colorado
Time: 9:00 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Colorado -10/62.5
The non-conference part of the season is done for both the UCLA Bruins and Colorado Buffaloes – with each having opposite results – and the two teams will open Pac-12 play on Friday night in Boulder, Colorado. The Bruins, who came into this season with the hardest schedule in the nation, are winless in three tries, while the Buffaloes are perfect – albeit a weak schedule. UCLA’s first three opponents – Cincinnati, No. 5 Oklahoma and Fresno State – are a combined 10-1 so far and the Bruins are hoping to avoid their first 0-4 record since 1971 under first-year coach Chip Kelly. UCLA has not been a very disciplined team so far, committing 23 penalties for 199 yards, will allowing 12 sacks and have turned the ball over five times. The Buffaloes are 3-0 for the second straight season but are hoping to finish stronger this year after dropping seven of their nine Pac-12 games in 2017 to finish last in the Pac-12 South. So far, the Buffaloes have beaten Colorado State (45-13), Nebraska (33-28) and FCS-foe New Hampshire (45-14), but that trio of teams is a combined 1-10 on the season. UCLA has won six of the seven meetings since Colorado joined the Pac-12 in 2011, including a 27-23 win last season in Los Angeles.
UCLA has all sorts of issues at quarterback so far as opening game-starter Wilton Speight was lost to a back injury, and dual-threat freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson has started the two games since. Kelly has had to deal with Thompson-Robinson’s father openly criticizing the play calling on Twitter. Sophomore quarterback Devon Modster, who started two games a season ago in place of the injured Josh Rosen, announced last Friday that he is transferring from the program, leaving the Bruins thin at the most important position in football. Kazmeir Allen and Bolu Olorunfunmi have led the tailback rotation, combining to rush for 237 yards and five scores while strong safety Adarius Pickett leads the defense with 13.3 tackles per game.
The Buffaloes have a pretty good aerial attack led by quarterback Steven Montez and wideout Laviska Shenault. The pair have connected for 26 passes and 455 yards with three touchdowns so far, and Shenault easily leads the FBS with his average of 151.7 receiving yards per game. Shenault also has three carries for 10 yards and a TD on the ground and earlier this week was added to the Biletnikoff Award watch list. Virginia Tech transfer Travon McMillian leads the ground attack with 290 yards and three TDs on 33 carries after rushing for a career-high 162 yards against New Hampshire. Sophomore linebacker Nate Landman (two interceptions) leads the defense with 11.3 tackles per contest.
I predicted UCLA would go under 5.5 wins this season (see video), but I didn’t expect them to be this bad. The defense is just as bad as it was last season, and Kelly isn’t fooling anyone anymore with his play calling. The Buffs aren’t a threat to win the Pac-12 South, but should have an easy time with the Bruins at home.
Pick: Colorado -9.5
Betting Trends:
- Bruins are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bruins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
- Bruins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Bruins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in September.
- Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
- Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Buffaloes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Buffaloes are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
- Buffaloes are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
- Buffaloes are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
- Buffaloes are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
- Buffaloes are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
- Over is 6-1 in Bruins last 7 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in Bruins last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Bruins last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 6-2 in Bruins last 8 Friday games.
- Over is 6-2 in Bruins last 8 games in September.
- Over is 8-3-1 in Bruins last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Bruins last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 6-0 in Buffaloes last 6 Friday games.
- Over is 4-0 in Buffaloes last 4 home games.
- Under is 8-1 in Buffaloes last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Buffaloes last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Buffaloes last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Buffaloes last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 games in September.
- Under is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 conference games.
- Under is 7-3 in Buffaloes last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
