Minnesota (30-36) at Cleveland (36-32)
When: Saturday, June 16th 2018
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Time: 4:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Cleveland -210/8.5
If the Minnesota Twins can keep beating the Cleveland Indians, then maybe they have a shot at making this American League Central a race this summer. The Twins captured their fourth consecutive victory over the defending division champs after getting to reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber in the series opener, getting a two-run homer and three RBIs from slumping Brian Dozier in the 6-3 victory. Joe Mauer played in his first game in a month, but was hitless in four at-bats, so Eddie Rosario picked him up by belting his fifth homer in seven games versus Cleveland this season. Catcher Yan Gomes homered and had an RBI single in Friday’s setback for the Indians, who still hold a 3.5 game lead over Detroit and five over Minnesota. Cleveland has dropped three of their last four overall, scoring just 11 runs total in that stretch. The Indians will try and get back on track behind Carlos Carrasco, who has won his last two starts in dominant fashion, but was hammered by the Twins in his previous start. Carrasco has allowed one run in his last two starts but allowed six runs in 3.2 innings on June 1st against Minnesota.
Pitchers: Twins – Fernando Romero (3-2, 3.92 ERA) | Indians – Carlos Carrasco (8-4, 3.90)
Fernando Romero has been pretty solid this season outside of one terrible outing in Kansas City. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his eight starts and picked up a win against the Angels last time out, allowing three runs on five hits over five innings to earn his first victory since May 7th. Romero turned in a quality start in his previous outing but had to settle for a no-decision after pitching six innings of two-run ball versus the Chicago White Sox. Romero is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in four afternoon starts this season.
Carrasco was 4-0 in his first five starts this season, including a no-decision in which he blanked Minnesota on three hits over seven innings. He handled the Chicago White Sox quite easily on Monday, striking out 11 batters while allowing two hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings. He also went seven innings in his previous outing, giving up one run on eight hits and striking out 10 to beat the Brewers in an interleague affair. Carrasco won all three starts against the Twins in 2017 while posting a 0.92 ERA.
I’m taking a shot at the big underdog in this one. Minnesota has won four-straight against Cleveland including as a +195 dog last night over Kluber. Romero is a good young pitcher who doesn’t get rattled easily.
Pick: Twins +185
BETTING TRENDS:
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Twins are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
- Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Indians are 48-17 in their last 65 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Indians are 42-15 in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Indians are 39-15 in their last 54 vs. American League Central.
- Indians are 39-16 in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Indians are 39-16 in their last 55 home games.
- Indians are 37-16 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Indians are 10-1 in Carrasco’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Indians are 5-1 in Carrasco’s last 6 Saturday starts.
- Indians are 11-3 in Carrasco’s last 14 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Indians are 20-6 in Carrasco’s last 26 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Indians are 23-8 in Carrasco’s last 31 starts vs. American League Central.
- Indians are 19-7 in Carrasco’s last 26 home starts.
- Indians are 13-5 in Carrasco’s last 18 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Indians are 25-10 in Carrasco’s last 35 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Indians are 35-16 in Carrasco’s last 51 starts.
- Indians are 35-17 in Carrasco’s last 52 starts on grass.
- Indians are 1-4 in Carrasco’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 9-2 in Twins last 11 games following a win.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 Saturday games.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Twins last 13 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Twins last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 overall.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Indians last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 9-1-1 in Indians last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 21-4-1 in Indians last 26 home games.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Indians last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 14-3-1 in Indians last 18 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 8-2 in Indians last 10 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 8-2 in Indians last 10 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-2 in Indians last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Indians last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Indians last 26 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 15-7-1 in Indians last 23 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 33-16-3 in Indians last 52 Saturday games.
- Over is 5-0 in Carrasco’s last 5 Saturday starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Carrasco’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Carrasco’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 11-4 in Carrasco’s last 15 home starts.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Carrasco’s last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-2 in Carrasco’s last 7 starts vs. American League Central.
- Twins are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.
- Twins are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.
- Indians are 1-4 in Carrasco’s last 5 home starts vs. Twins.
