Minnesota (40-18) at Cleveland (29-30)
When: Tuesday, June 4th, 2019
Where: Progressive Field,
Cleveland, Ohio
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Cleveland -140/8.5
If you told people the American League Central leader on June 4th would have an 11.5-game lead over second place, most would have predicted it would be the Cleveland Indians as that top team. That is unless you asked Minnesota Twins fans. That is the gap heading into the first week of June as the Twins look to widen their gap over both the Indians and Chicago White Sox. Minnesota and Cleveland will tangle in a three-game series beginning Tuesday night at Progressive Field and rookie Devin Smeltzer goes for the Twins and Shane Bieber takes the hill for the Tribe. The Twins not only own the best record in baseball at 40-18, but have the best road record as well (21-9) and are coming off a weekend in which they took three of four at Tampa Bay. The Twins have won 10 of their last 12 overall and are hitting the cover off the ball, leading the majors in runs (5.98), Average (.275), OPS (.853), and home runs (109). The Indians are on the opposite end of the spectrum in regards to offense and that is why they have lost 10 of their last 14 games after dropping three of four at the White Sox over the weekend. Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor is doing his best to carry the offense by going 5-for-15 with a homer at Chicago and is batting .355 over his last eight games with five RBI. The Twins took two of three from Cleveland in Minnesota to open the season back in March.
Pitchers: Twins – Devin Smeltzer (0-0, 0.00 ERA) | Indians – Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.67)
When the Twins dealt fan-favorite Brian Dozier to the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer, they got Smeltzer in return and the lefty made his major league debut last week. He limited the Milwaukee Brewers to three hits over six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and did not walk a batter. Smeltzer was 3-2 with a 1.15 ERA in nine minor league games between Double and Triple-A before being summoned.
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Bieber was rocked by the Boston Red Sox in his last outing for six runs on eight hits (three homers) over five innings with six strikeouts but managed to earn his fourth win thanks to a surprisingly potent Cleveland offense that day. Before that start, Bieber shut down the Rays and Orioles and recorded 25 strikeouts in the two starts covering 14 innings. That puts him ninth in the majors at 85 Ks in 68.2 innings. Bieber is 1-0 with a 4.58 ERA in four career games (three starts) against Minnesota.
I would give Cleveland the pitching edge in this one, but I really don’t think the Twins care who’s on the mound. They are on a roll right now both home and away and the Indians are reeling. Smeltzer looks like he can be pretty good and this Indians lineup shouldn’t scare anyone.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Monday. He is 73-46 +2034 units on the season after a 23-8 run!
Pick: Twins +128
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BETTING TRENDS:
Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games.
Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 games following an off day.
Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Twins are 13-3 in their last 16 road games.
Twins are 21-5 in their last 26 vs. American League Central.
Twins are 11-3 in their last 14 games following a win.
Twins are 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Twins are 9-3 in their last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 9-3 in their last 12 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Twins are 38-13 in their last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Twins are 20-7 in their last 27 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 21-8 in their last 29 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Twins are 46-18 in their last 64 overall.
Twins are 36-15 in their last 51 vs. a team with a losing record.
Twins are 40-17 in their last 57 games on grass.
Twins are 14-6 in their last 20 during game 1 of a series.
Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day.
Indians are 12-4 in their last 16 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Indians are 11-4 in their last 15 Tuesday games.
Indians are 7-15 in their last 22 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 4-9 in their last 13 vs. American League Central.
Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Indians are 4-10 in their last 14 overall.
Indians are 4-10 in their last 14 games on grass.
Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Indians are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Indians are 4-0 in Bieber’s last 4 home starts.
Indians are 5-0 in Bieber’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Indians are 6-1 in Bieber’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 5-1 in Bieber’s last 6 starts.
Indians are 5-1 in Bieber’s last 6 starts on grass.
Indians are 4-1 in Bieber’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Indians are 4-1 in Bieber’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
Indians are 6-2 in Bieber’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 5-2 in Bieber’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
Indians are 9-4 in Bieber’s last 13 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 overall.
Over is 4-0-2 in Twins last 6 road games.
Over is 3-0-2 in Twins last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-0 in Twins last 4 on grass.
Over is 4-0-2 in Twins last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Twins last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
Under is 19-8 in Twins last 27 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 games following a win.
Under is 6-1 in Indians last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 6-1-2 in Indians last 9 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Under is 10-2 in Indians last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Indians last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 7-2 in Indians last 9 vs. American League Central.
Under is 11-4 in Indians last 15 games following a loss.
Over is 5-2 in Indians last 7 games following an off day.
Under is 5-2 in Indians last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 18-8 in Indians last 26 overall.
Under is 18-8 in Indians last 26 on grass.
Under is 11-5 in Indians last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0-2 in Bieber’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 4-0 in Bieber’s last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Bieber’s last 4 home starts.
Under is 6-1 in Bieber’s last 7 starts on grass.
Under is 6-1 in Bieber’s last 7 starts overall.
Under is 6-1-2 in Bieber’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Bieber’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 6-2-1 in Bieber’s last 9 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Bieber’s last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.
Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Twins are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
