Toledo (8-1, 5-0) at Ohio (7-2, 4-1)
When: Wednesday, November 8th 2017
Where: Peden Stadium, Athens, OH
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Toledo -8/62
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In what could be a preview of the Mid-American Conference Championship Game next month, the Toledo Rockets will visit the Ohio Bobcats for a regular season clash on Wednesday night in Athens. Toledo leads the conference as a whole with a 5-0 record in the West Division, and they’re 8-1 overall with the lone loss coming at the undefeated Miami Hurricanes. Toledo gives up 24.4 points per game on the season, but only 16.0 in their five MAC games. Ohio enters this week at 4-1 in the East Division, with Akron also at 4-1 before Tuesday night’s game against Miami (Ohio). The Bobcats and Zips will play next Tuesday night in a game that could decide the division title and trip to Detroit. The only loss the Bobcats have suffered in conference was a 26-23 setback to Central Michigan in which Ohio was -3 in the turnover ratio. Toledo owns a 31-20-1 series edge over Ohio, but the Bobcats knocked off the Rockets 31-26 in the Glass Bowl last season. Prior to 2016, Toledo had won 12 games in a row versus Ohio.
Toledo’s offense goes through quarterback Logan Woodside, who threw for over 4,000 yards last year, but has been more efficient in 2017. The senior has passed for 2,656 yards and 19 touchdowns with only two interceptions through nine games and is completing 64.3% percent of his throws. Woodside leads all MAC quarterbacks with seven completions of 50 yards or more, because he has a terrific receiving corps. Diontae Johnson leads the team with 46 catches and eight touchdown grabs and also averages 18.7 yards per reception. Running back Terry Swanson leads the rushing attack with 844 yards and 11 touchdowns and averages 5.3 yards per carry. Swanson missed the Eastern Michigan game due to injury but has reeled off four 100-yard games in a row. In last week’s win over Northern Illinois, Swanson rushed for three touchdowns and recorded 116 yards against one of the MAC’s top defenses. Ohio’s defense ranks second in the MAC against the run, only giving up 123 yards a game.
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Ohio’s rush offense is not bad either, ranking first in the MAC at 232.9 yards per game. They average 5.5 yards per carry and have crossed the goal line 31 times on the ground through nine games. Running back A.J. Ouellette missed most of last season due to injury but has returned to lead the attack with 827 yards and six touchdowns. The Bobcats will also use Dorian Brown (458 yards) when Ouellette needs a breather. The insertion of quarterback Nathan Rourke into the starting lineup has sparked the offense as well. Rourke replaced Quinton Maxwell under center for the Week 3 game against Kansas and has passed for 1,504 yards and 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Papi White returned from injury to catch five passes for 80 yards and a score against Miami last week. Rourke also posses the ability to get things done with his legs, rushing for 553 yards and a team-leading 16 rushing scores. Rourke boasts three 100-yard rushing performances and recorded 54 on 10 carries in last week’s win over Miami.
Toledo has the better team on a neutral surface, but this one is in Athens and the sharps jumped all over the Bobcats on Sunday night. Toledo opened as eight-point favorites, but the line is now down to close to a field goal, even though Toledo is getting 60% of the bets. This will be a tight back-and-forth affair and will come down to a field goal either way. Take the points.
Pick: Ohio +4
TRENDS:
- Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Rockets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.
- Rockets are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Rockets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Rockets are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.
- Rockets are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.
- Rockets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
- Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
- Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockets last 6 Wednesday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games in November.
- Under is 15-4 in Rockets last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 8-3 in Rockets last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 21-8-1 in Rockets last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Rockets last 11 conference games.
- Under is 9-4 in Rockets last 13 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Bobcats last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Bobcats last 4 games in November.
- Under is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Bobcats last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 8-2 in Bobcats last 10 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Bobcats last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Bobcats last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 20-7 in Bobcats last 27 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 16-6 in Bobcats last 22 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Bobcats last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 21-8-1 in Bobcats last 30 conference games.
- Over is 5-2 in Bobcats last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 25-11-1 in Bobcats last 37 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
