Tennessee (10-7) at New England (13-3)
When: Saturday, January 13th 2018
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -11.5/48
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The New England Patriots are in a familiar spot – another division title, another playoff berth, and the favorites in the AFC. They will begin defense of their championship by taking on a Tennessee Titans team who is coming off their first postseason win since 2003. The Patriots have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in two of the past three seasons and look to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since they accomplished it in 2003-04. New England spent the bye week dealing with a rare off-the-field distraction when ESPN detailed a power struggle between coach Bill Belichick, quarterback Tom Brady and owner Robert Kraft – a report the team obviously disputed. While Brady has 25 playoff wins under his belt, the upstart Titans will arrive in town fresh off a stunning 22-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs after trailing by 18 points at halftime. Tennessee, which lost three straight before beating Jacksonville in Week 17 to clinch a postseason spot, has not won at New England since 2003, when the franchise was still located in Houston. Tennessee Quarterback Marcus Mariota is just as deadly in the red zone as Brady, with 40 touchdowns and no interceptions in his first three seasons. The question will be – can the Titans move the ball enough to get into those red zone opportunities?
Mariota threw for more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13) this season, but led Tennessee to three long touchdown drives in the second half, including a TD pass to himself (video) at Kansas City. Mariota also rushed eight times for 46 yards but the Titans’ best hopes are with backup running back Derrick Henry, who punished the Chiefs for 156 yards and a score on 23 carries. Starter DeMarco Murray is expected to miss another game with an injury, but Henry has been capable. Tight end Delanie Walker had a team-high 74 catches while Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker added 53 and 54, respectively. Tennessee is 25th against the pass (239.3 yards) but tied for fifth in the league with 43 sacks – so they get after the quarterback.
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Brady once again had a monster season, leading the league with 4,577 yards and throwing 32 touchdowns versus eight interceptions, but he had just six scoring strikes and five picks over the past five games. Dion Lewis has rushed for at least 92 yards in four of his past six games and scored five times in the past three. Lewis will not have to carry the load alone, as Rex Burkhead and James White are expected to return from injury. Rob Gronkowski and the speedy Brandin Cooks each went over 1,000 yards and combined for 15 touchdowns for New England’s top-ranking offense (394.2 yards). The Patriots defense was scorched in the first month of the season, but have stabilized and have limited 10 of their last 12 opponents to 17 points or fewer.
There isn’t enough distractions off the field that can prevent the Patriots from losing this game. Brady and Belichick are both still hungry for another title. Brady has 13 TDs and zero picks in his six career meetings with the Titans and will pick them apart Saturday. I expect a route.
Pick: Patriots -13.5
- Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Titans are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Titans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
- Titans are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games.
- Titans are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win.
- Titans are 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 games following a straight up win.
- Titans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Titans are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Titans are 15-38-4 ATS in their last 57 vs. AFC.
- Titans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
- Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
- Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff home games.
- Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
- Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Patriots are 14-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 20-8-3 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Patriots are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 home games.
- Patriots are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
- Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 vs. AFC.
- Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 playoff road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 playoff games.
- Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 vs. AFC.
- Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 9-2-1 in Titans last 12 Saturday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-3 in Titans last 12 games in January.
- Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 road games.
- Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Patriots last 8 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Over is 6-0 in Patriots last 6 playoff home games.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Patriots last 9 Saturday games.
- Over is 7-1 in Patriots last 8 playoff games.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in January.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC.
- Over is 12-5 in Patriots last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 home games.
- Over is 66-32 in Patriots last 98 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New England.
- Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
- Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
