Tennessee (9-7) at Kansas City (10-6)
When: Saturday, January 6th 2018
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Time: 4:35 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Kansas City -6.5/45
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The Kansas City Chiefs were looking like a team that would represent the AFC in the Super Bowl after a 5-0 start, but then the wheels fell off mid-season before rallying in the last month to win their second straight AFC West title. Now, they will seek their first home playoff victory in 24 years when they host the Tennessee Titans in an AFC Wild Card game on Saturday afternoon. The Chiefs have won four straight following a midseason slump and again look like a contender. Their defense, which was scorched before a dramatic turnaround over the final month, held each of their last four opponents under 350 total yards while forcing 12 turnovers – the same recipe they used during their 5-0 start. The Titans are in the playoffs for the first time since 2008, but are limping in after snapping a three-game losing streak with a 15-10 victory over a Jacksonville on Sunday with nothing to play for. Tennessee was just 3-5 away from Nissan Stadium while averaging just 17.5 points and 270.8 total yards a game. The Chiefs beat Tennessee 30-6 in a preseason game back in August, but none of the stars that we’ll see on Saturday played in that game.
Tennessee’s offense has been inconsistent all season, but have a few weapons that can make them dangerous in an elimination game. The rushing attack carries the offense, but they’ll probably be without DeMarco Murray, who is dealing with a torn MCL. Derrick Henry is an admirable backup and helped lift his team in the win over the Jaguars last Sunday with a 66-yard TD catch. He will need to improve on his numbers from last week where he ran the ball 28 times for just 51 yards (1.8 per carry). Quarterback Marcus Mariota is having his worst season of his three-year career, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, but is deadly in the red zone. Mariota has 39 TD strikes and no picks in such situations. Tennessee’s defense ranks fourth against the run and came up big last week against the Jaguars with four takeaways.
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It wasn’t just Kansas City’s defense that went through tough times while losing six of seven games in the middle of the season – the offense sputtered badly as well – but everything clicked again in its last four games. Rookie Kareem Hunt finished as the NFL’s leading rusher (1,327 yards) while Alex Smith joined Tom Brady and Drew Brees as the only quarterbacks in the league to pass for more than 4,000 yards with fewer than 10 interceptions, finishing with 4,042 yards and five picks. Wide receiver Albert Wilson has caught a touchdown pass in each of his last two postseason games. The Chiefs rank 28th in total defense including 29th against the pass, but has been improving down the stretch.
WILD CARD WEEKEND STAFF SELECTIONS
This Chiefs team was awful for a while, but seem to have put things together. I don’t see them as the favorites in the AFC like I did in September, but they should be able to eliminate the Titans on Saturday. Tennessee plays good enough defense to keep it close, but will fall just short.
Pick: Titans +9
- Titans are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Titans are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win.
- Titans are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
- Titans are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games.
- Titans are 15-38-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win.
- Titans are 14-38-4 ATS in their last 56 vs. AFC.
- Titans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Titans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
- Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 playoff games.
- Over is 6-1 in Titans last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Titans last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Titans last 11 Saturday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 8-3 in Titans last 11 games in January.
- Over is 20-8-1 in Titans last 29 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 9-4 in Titans last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 playoff home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 7-2 in Chiefs last 9 Saturday games.
- Under is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games overall.
- Under is 12-5 in Chiefs last 17 games in January.
- Under is 14-6 in Chiefs last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 44-19 in Chiefs last 63 home games.
- Under is 35-17-1 in Chiefs last 53 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
