Tennessee (11-7) at Kansas City (13-4)
When: Sunday, January 19th, 2020
Where: Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO
Time: 3:05 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Kansas City -7.5/51.5
The upstart Tennessee Titans are one win away from an improbable Super Bowl and standing in their way are the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game on Sunday. These teams actually played two years ago in a Wild-Card game at Arrowhead Stadium, and the Titans rallied from down 21-3 in the third quarter to stun the Chiefs 22-21. Kansas City knows a little something about rallying themselves as they went from getting stunned by the Houston Texans last week to completely annihilating them. Houston jumped out to a 24-0 lead before the Chiefs went nuts and scored the next 41 points and won 51-31. Back to the last time these teams played in the playoffs. Marcus Mariota was the Tennessee quarterback then and threw for 205 yards and two scores. Derrick Henry rushed for 156 yards and a touchdown and Patrick Mahomes was backup up to Alex Smith for the Chiefs, and Smith threw for 264 yards and two scores in his final game with the team. Kansas City is in the AFC title game for the second year in a row and almost beat the visiting New England Patriots last year if not for a late offsides call in regulation on former Chief Dee Ford that wiped out a Tom Brady interception. The Patriots would win in overtime. The Chiefs haven’t got past this point since beating the Minnesota Vikings in SB IV by a score of 23-7 in January 1970. This will be Tennessee’s first trip to the AFC title game since January 2003 when they lost in Oakland. The Titans’ lone Super Bowl appearance was a memorable 23-16 loss to the Rams in XXXIV when they came up one yard short of tying the game on the final play. Kansas City lost a wild 35-32 decision to the Titans in Nashville in Week 10 despite 446 yards passing and three scores from Mahomes. Ryan Tannehill hit Adam Humphries on the go-ahead TD pass with 23 seconds left. The Titans have covered the past four in the series.
Tennessee upset the Patriots as 5-point underdogs in the wild card round and completely shocked the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens 28-12 in the Divisional round. The Ravens had the NFL’s best regular-season mark and were on a franchise-record 12-game winning streak. Expected NFL MVP Lamar Jackson got plenty of passing yards but only scored once on that Titans defense and was intercepted twice and lost a fumble. Tannehill threw for only 88 yards but didn’t turn the ball over with three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). It was the Derrick Henry show once again, as the former Heisman winner had 195 yards rushing on 30 carries while also throwing a short touchdown pass. Counting his final regular-season game, Henry is the first player in NFL history with three straight games of at least 180 yards rushing. Tennessee’s defense has not allowed more than 14 points in each of their last three games. The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games and 7-3 SU this season.
Kansas City’s epic comeback last Sunday was led by Mahomes, who had four touchdown passes in the second quarter alone and finished with 321 yards passing and five scores while also rushing for a team-best 53 yards. Tight end Travis Kelce caught 10 passes for 134 yards and three scores even though he appeared to pull a hamstring during the game. The Chiefs became the first team in postseason history to win by 20 points after trailing by at least 20 and were also the first in history to score a touchdown on seven consecutive drives in a playoff game. Defensive tackle Chris Jones, who led the team with nine sacks this season, didn’t play with a calf injury and he remains questionable for Sunday for a Chiefs team that has surrendered 51 points in their last two games after holding opponents to single digits three times since Week 13. The Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven games overall.
This Kansas City team is scary when they get rolling, but I can’t see them doing this against a Tennessee defense that continues to be overlooked. They took care of the greatest quarterback in NFL history two weeks ago (Brady) and forced this year’s MVP (Jackson) into several mistakes. The Chiefs don’t have a great defense and Derrick Henry is almost impossible to stop right now. Tennessee’s offense kept up just fine with KC back in Week 10 in winning outright. I will take the points in this one.
Pick: Titans +7.5 (NFL Playoff Staff Free Picks)
Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Titans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Titans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Titans are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Titans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Titans are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Chiefs are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games.
Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 7-1 in Titans last 8 playoff games.
Over is 7-1 in Titans last 8 games on grass.
Over is 6-1 in Titans last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Titans last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Titans last 7 playoff road games.
Over is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games in January.
Over is 9-3 in Titans last 12 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games overall.
Over is 10-4 in Chiefs last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 home games.
Under is 40-19-1 in Chiefs last 60 games as a home favorite.
Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
