Tennessee (2-0) at Florida (0-1)
When: Saturday, September 16th 2017
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Florida -8.5/56
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Hurricane Irma has passed, and now the city of Gainesville and the Florida Gators will look to give their fans a distraction on Saturday when they host the Tennessee Volunteers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. “After meeting with the City of Gainesville, campus officials and numerous staffing entities to discuss hosting the game, we are pleased that the Florida-Tennessee football game will take place in Gainesville Saturday as scheduled,” Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin announced. The Gators had their home game against Northern Colorado cancelled due to the storm after dropping their opener to Michigan after suspending nine players indefinitely. The Volunteers come in with a lot of offensive momentum after scoring 42 points in each of its first two victories over Georgia Tech and Indiana State. The Volunteers snapped an 11-game losing streak in the series with a 38-28 win at home last season.
The Volunteers have cracked the Top 25 thanks not only to the offense, but special teams and defense have stepped up. Freshman Ty Chandler returned the opening kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown last weekend against Indiana State, marking the team’s ninth punt or kickoff return TD since 2015. Tennessee’s defense allowed a total of 213 passing yards over the first two games and is coming off a dominating effort against the Sycamores in which it collected 11 tackles for loss and held them to 0-for-11 on third down. Tennessee will play their next three games at home starting with Massachusetts next week.
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The Gators will start Feleipe Franks at quarterback despite benching the freshman in favor of Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire in the opening loss to Michigan. Franks fumbled twice and was sacked once by the Wolverines while throwing for 75 yards, but impressed coach Jim McElwain enough to give him the nod against Tennessee. Whoever takes the snaps under center could use more help from the running game, which gained only 11 yards on 27 carries in the opening loss. Gators defensive backs Duke Dawson and C.J. Henderson accounted for all the Florida offense against Michigan, each returning an interception for a touchdown. Florida will be at Kentucky next week then play three consecutive home games.
I know Florida has an advantage playing at home here, but their offense is absolutely horrible. Yes, they went up against a tough Michigan squad, but you have to run better than that. Tennessee’s offense has been clicking and will get a test against Florida, but I think they get the job done and pull out an outright upset victory.
Pick: Tennessee +5
TRENDS:
- Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Volunteers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
- Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Volunteers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Volunteers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
- Volunteers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Gators are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Gators are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Gators are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a bye week.
- Gators are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
- Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Gators are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Gators are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Gators are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
- Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Over is 8-1 in Volunteers last 9 conference games.
- Over is 6-1 in Volunteers last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-1 in Volunteers last 6 games overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Volunteers last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-1 in Volunteers last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-1 in Volunteers last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Volunteers last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 12-4 in Volunteers last 16 games following a bye week.
- Under is 9-3 in Volunteers last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 21-7 in Volunteers last 28 games in September.
- Under is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Gators last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 11-2 in Gators last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Gators last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 conference games.
- Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 games overall.
- Over is 9-3 in Gators last 12 games in September.
- Under is 10-4 in Gators last 14 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Florida.
- Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
- Volunteers are 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
