TCU (10-2) at Oklahoma (11-1)
When: Saturday, December 2nd 2017
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Time: 12:30 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Oklahoma -6/61.5
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The Oklahoma Sooners are just one win away from punching a ticket to this year’s College Football Playoffs, but standing in their way are the TCU Horned Frogs, who also have an outside chance to be playing for the coveted prize. TCU is 11th in the latest rankings, so they would need to not only need to destroy the Sooners, but get some help this weekend as well. Heisman Trophy voters must turn in their ballots by 5 p.m. ET on Monday so this is Baker Mayfield’s last chance to clinch the award after finishing third last season and fourth in 2015. Mayfield threw for 333 yards and three touchdowns, and also rushed for 50 yards as his Sooners beat TCU on November 11th 38-20 after racing out to a 38-14 halftime lead and coasting to an easy win. The Horned Frogs have cruised to two easy victories since that defeat by beating Texas Tech and Baylor by a combined 72-25. TCU owns the eighth-best defense in the country as far as points allowed (15.7), but the Sooners have scored at least 30 points in 21 of its last 22 games and came up just a point short of that feat in the other, a 29-24 win over Texas back in October.
The Horned Frogs defense will be without starting safety Nick Orr, who is suspended the first half for throwing a punch in last week’s win over Baylor. That’s a bad sign for a team that ranks 73rd against the pass and allowed 533 yards, including 200 rushing, in the first meeting. Defensive end Ben Banogu, a transfer from Louisiana-Monroe, leads TCU’s defense with 7.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. The offense is led by quarterback Kenny Hill (19 touchdown passes), but was held in check in the November game in Norman, going just 13-of-28 for 270 yards and one TD in the loss to the Sooners. The Horned Frogs lost leading rusher Darius Anderson for the season in the Oklahoma game and haven’t been able to establish a strong running game since.
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Mayfield has completed an FBS-best 71.4% of his passes for 4,097 yards, 37 touchdowns and five interceptions and his pass efficiency rating of 203.3 is on target to be an NCAA record. He has a lot of weapons around him including running back Rodney Anderson, who had 290 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns in the first meeting against TCU, including 151 yards rushing and two TDs against a Horned Frogs defense that entered the contest allowing a nation-low 69.7 rushing yards per game. Junior tight end Mark Andrews leads the team in receptions (51) for 848 yards and six touchdowns and is one of three finalists for the Mackey Award. Senior defensive end/outside linebacker Ogbonnia Okoronkwo leads a defense that has been getting stronger as the season progresses, but still give up a lot yards through the air (241.2). Okoronkwo has eight sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss on the season.
I was wrong in my prediction between these two teams last month, thinking that the TCU defense could slow down Oklahoma. I’m not going to make that mistake again. The Sooners are cruising right now and deserve to be in the playoffs if they win this game.
Pick: Oklahoma -7
TRENDS:
- Horned Frogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Horned Frogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
- Horned Frogs are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
- Horned Frogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
- Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
- Sooners are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Sooners are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Sooners are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
- Under is 5-0 in Horned Frogs last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Horned Frogs last 8 games overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last 7 games in December.
- Under is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Horned Frogs last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 19-7 in Horned Frogs last 26 conference games.
- Under is 6-1 in Sooners last 7 neutral site games.
- Under is 14-3-1 in Sooners last 18 games in December.
- Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 12-4 in Sooners last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Sooners last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 10-4 in Sooners last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 24-10-1 in Sooners last 35 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
