Texas Christian (8-1, 5-1) at Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1)
When: Saturday, November 11th 2017
Where: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Oklahoma -8/64
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The TCU Horned Frogs have already invaded the state of Oklahoma and beat a highly-ranked Cowboys team 44-31, but in order to stay in the hunt for a berth in the College Football Playoffs, they must do it again. The Oklahoma Sooners will host this ‘elimination’ game on Saturday night in Norman, with the winner also all but clinching a berth in the Big 12 Championship Game next month. Oklahoma came in at No. 5 and TCU was sixth in this week’s CFP rankings, making the winner of this contest a possible top four team in next week’s rankings. TCU is coming off a 24-7 win against Texas after losing their only game of the season the week before at Iowa State 14-7. The Sooners have won four straight – three of those on the road – after last week’s 62-52 shootout win over rival Oklahoma State. Oklahoma has scored at least 30 points in 18 of its last 19 games and at least 42 in their last three. Oklahoma leads the all-time series 11-5 and has won four of the five meetings since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12 with the only loss coming in 2014, 37-33 in Fort Worth.
The Horned Frogs held the Longhorns to just 263 total yards, including nine on the ground and ranked No. 1 in the nation against the run (69.7) and sixth overall (284.1). They will be tested big time this week against an Oklahoma offense that leads the nation in total offense (608.2 yards), passing offense (395.0 yards), offensive touchdowns (53). Defensive end Ben Banogu (35 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks) and linebacker Travin Howard (70 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss) are two reasons why this defense is so dominant.. Senior quarterback Kenny Hill (176-of-259, 2,009 yards, 15 TDs, 5 interceptions.) and running back Darius Anderson (726 rushing yards, 7 TDs) lead an offense that scores 35.8 points a game.
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Heisman Trophy-candidate Baker Mayfield leads the nation in completion percentage (71.7), pass efficiency rating (201.6) and is second in total offense (378.6 yards) and passing yards per game (358.4) after throwing for a school-record 598 yards and five touchdowns against the Cowboys last week. Running back Rodney Anderson recorded his third straight 100-yard rushing game with 111 yards and a touchdown while sophomore wide receiver Marquise Brown caught a career-high nine passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end Mark Andrews leads all players in the country at his position with 39 receptions, 701 receiving yards and an average of 18 yards per catch. The nation’s 86th-ranked defense is led by senior DE/LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, who tops the Big 12 in sacks (8.0) and is second in tackles for loss (14.0).
I look at this game the same way I did the TCU/Oklahoma State contest earlier this year. I didn’t think the Horned Frogs could keep up with the Cowboys in that game, but I underestimated their defense. Oklahoma gives up way too many points, and I think they will struggle offensively against this stout TCU defense. I’ll take the points and enjoy this game and all of Saturday’s terrific action.
Pick: TCU +6.5
TRENDS:
- Horned Frogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
- Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Horned Frogs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
- Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Sooners are 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Sooners are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
- Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Sooners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
- Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Sooners are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Sooners are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Sooners are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
- Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Horned Frogs last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 games on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last 7 games in November.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 8-2 in Horned Frogs last 10 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 16-5 in Horned Frogs last 21 conference games.
- Under is 6-2 in Horned Frogs last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 12-4 in Sooners last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Sooners last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Sooners last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 24-11-1 in Sooners last 36 conference games.
- Over is 13-6 in Sooners last 19 games in November.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Oklahoma.
- Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
