Pittsburgh (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1)
When: Sunday, October 1st 2017
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -1.5/45
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The Baltimore Ravens will look to get their offense moving when they host their bitter-rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 4 clash on Sunday afternoon. The Ravens are last in the NFL in total offense and are coming off an embarrassing loss in London to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens will try to put more points on the board when they host the Steelers, who are coming off their own tough loss. Baltimore is averaging just 263.7 yards on offense and put up 186 total yards while getting run off the field in a 44-7 loss in London last week. The Steelers are enduring their own struggles on offense at an average of 302.3 yards after last week’s 23-17 overtime setback at Chicago. This rivalry has been really tight in the Flacco/Roethlisberger era, with 14 of the last 19 contests decided by four points or less. The home team has won the last three meetings, but the Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five overall.
The main reason for Pittsburgh’s troubles on offense is running back Le’Veon Bell, who is off to a slow start after missing offseason work with a groin injury and sitting out training camp waiting to sign his franchise tender. He finally found the end zone for the first time last week but is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry – down from a career mark of 4.4 – and has yet to combine for 100 yards rushing and receiving. Antonio Brown leads the NFL in receiving yards (354) and has caught 26 of Big Ben’s 69 completions. Fellow wideout Martavis Bryant, who is sitting out practices this week due to an illness, has just seven catches on the year and is questionable for Sunday. The Pittsburgh secondary has been outstanding, holding opponents to an NFL second-best 136.7 yards per game through the air. The Steelers will host Jacksonville next week.
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Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was just 8-of-18 for 28 yards and two interceptions last week and is averaging 5.30 yards per attempt through the first three games. Flacco, who missed all of training camp and the preseason with a back injury, is not getting much help from his wide receivers. Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman have a combined 11 catches on 31 targets for 121 yards, while tight end Benjamin Watson leads the team with 103 receiving yards. The defense was tops on the league before last week’s thrashing, but are still solid even though DT Brandon Williams may not play again due to a foot injury. The Ravens will travel to high-flying Oakland next week for a tilt with the Raiders.
I fully expect the Ravens to bounce back from last week’s debacle and show a little more life on offense. Those London trips can be a little odd for some players and I’m going to excuse it. Baltimore hadn’t allowed more than 13 points in any of their first six games (including preseason) this year. The Steelers offense is struggling also and it’s rare that you’ll get the home team as an underdog in this series. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Ravens +3
- Steelers are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Steelers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games in October.
- Steelers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
- Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC North.
- Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Ravens are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC.
- Ravens are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.
- Ravens are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games in October.
- Ravens are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss.
- Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 21-7 in Steelers last 28 road games.
- Under is 19-7 in Steelers last 26 games overall.
- Under is 19-7 in Steelers last 26 games in October.
- Under is 23-9-1 in Steelers last 33 vs. AFC.
- Under is 25-10-1 in Steelers last 36 vs. AFC North.
- Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 9-4 in Steelers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 vs. AFC North.
- Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 7-2 in Ravens last 9 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Ravens last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 10-4 in Ravens last 14 home games.
- Over is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 14-6-1 in Ravens last 21 games on fieldturf.
- Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
