Pittsburgh (0-1-1) at Tampa Bay (2-0)
When: Monday, September 24th 2018
Where: Raymond James Stadium,
Tampa, Florida
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -2.5/50
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been one of the early surprises in the league after two weeks and will look to keep that going under the lights when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. After a 5-11 campaign in 2017, and the fact that starting quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended for the first three games in 2018, the outlook didn’t look so bright in Tampa. Backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has changed all of that with his superlative play through two games and has guided the Bucs to a 2-0 start with victories at New Orleans and home against Philadelphia. With Winston due back from suspension next week, head coach Dirk Koetter has a big decision to make regarding his QB situation. There’s no question who runs the offense on the other sidelines, as Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers try and put away all of the off-field distractions generated lately by wideout Antonio Brown and hold-out running back Le’Veon Bell. Pittsburgh is winless through two games, tying the Browns in Week 1, and getting scorched by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 2. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall dating back to the end of the 2017 season, while the Steelers have struggled against the number as of late, going 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Head-to-head there really isn’t much of a history, as the teams have met just twice in the last 12 years (1-1).
Despite the turmoil with their offensive stars, Pittsburgh has managed to put up 58 points in the first two games, but its the defense that is having the most trouble. After failing to protect a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead en route to a tie at Cleveland in the season opener, the Steelers allowed Mahomes to throw for 326 yards and six touchdowns in Sunday’s shootout. Roethlisberger rebounded from a five-turnover debacle in Week 1 by throwing for 452 yards and three scores last weekend – with JuJu Smith-Schuster catching 13 of his passes for for 121 yards and a TD. Running back James Conner was terrific against Cleveland, gaining 135 yards and two touchdowns, but was limited to 17 yards on eight carries last week.
Fitzpatrick has recorded eight touchdowns and a league-high 819 yards thus far in relief of Winston and has helped temporarily resurrect the career of wideout DeSean Jackson, who has nine receptions for 275 yards and three touchdowns through two games. Mike Evans has been the favorite target of Fitzpatrick with 17 catches for 230 yards and two scores. Fitzpatrick is bidding to become the first QB in NFL history with at least 400 passing yards in three straight games. Tampa Bay’s defense, which ranks dead last against the pass and 31st overall, received a boost when defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul and cornerback Brent Grimes were full participants in Friday’s practice.
Neither of these teams can play any defense, and with all of the scoring we saw on Sunday, its seems likely to be a shootout. I know Fitzpatrick has been amazing, but I trust Big Ben more under the lights coming off a loss. Fitzpatrick will come down to earth a little, and the Steelers win a close one.
Pick: Steelers +1
Betting Trends:
- Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 3.
- Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
- Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Buccaneers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Buccaneers are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Buccaneers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 23-7 in Steelers last 30 road games.
- Under is 19-7 in Steelers last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Steelers last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games in September.
- Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Steelers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 9-4 in Steelers last 13 games in Week 3.
- Over is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games in September.
- Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 9-3 in Buccaneers last 12 home games.
- Over is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
