Stanford (1-0, 0-0) at Southern California (1-0, 0-0)
When: Saturday, September 9th 2017
Where: L.A. Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: USC -10.5/54.5
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The Stanford Cardinal have had their way with the Southern California Trojans in recent years and will look to keep that going when the two teams open their Pac-12 schedule on Saturday night in Los Angeles. No. 5 USC has lost seven of the last nine meetings in the all-time series since beating the Cardinal 13-10 in 2014, with all three losses coming by double digits. Both teams won their openers in completely different ways, with the Cardinal travelling to Australia to beat Rice 62-7 as most starters didn’t even have to play in the second half. The Trojans didn’t have it so easy, breaking a 28-28 tie midway through the fourth quarter against Western Michigan before escaping with a 49-31 win. USC head coach Clay Helton pointed out that his team’s tackling must get better against Stanford. The Cardinal have covered six of the last seven meetings at the Coliseum.
The Cardinal have a very balanced offensive attack led by a terrific line, and running back Bryce Love averaged almost five yards a carry in last year’s game, rushing for 51 yards on 11 carries. Love has the backfield all to himself this season with Christian McCaffrey, the No. 8 overall draft pick of the Carolina Panthers last spring, and should get the chance to play the entire game against USC. Love had 180 yards on just 13 carries in the opener against Rice. Fellow back Cameron Scarlett took care of the second half duties and scored three touchdowns on just eight touches. The running game should relieve some of the pressure on senior quarterback Keller Chryst, who has won all seven games as a starter for Stanford. Chryst completed 14-of-24 passes against the Owls for 253 yards and two scores. Stanford has gained at least 500 yards of total offense and scored at least 40 points in four of its last five games.
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The Trojans have a pretty good QB-RB combo as well with Sam Darnold and Ronald Jones II. Darnold, who is regarded as the Heisman favorite this season, really struggled in the first half against Western Michigan, but help lead the Trojans to an eventual win. He was 23-for-33 for 289 yards, but did not throw a touchdown and was picked-off twice. Jones scored three times on the ground and recorded 159 yards on 18 carries, while freshman running back Stephen Carr had 69 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Darnold wasn’t yet the starter when Stanford beat USC last season but moved into that role the following week, and the Trojans have won 10 of 11 since. Jones will need another big game to help take the pressure off Darnold. USC has won 10 straight games against FBS opponents, the nation’s second-longest streak behind Oklahoma (11).
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Stanford is not afraid to go on the road into hostile environments. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on the road against winning teams and have already proved they can win in L.A. USC had trouble tackling Western Michigan players and it won’t get any easier against a physical Stanford team. Darnold seemed a little uncomfortable last week with all the pre-season hype surrounding him. I think Stanford keeps this one close and could possibly pull the upset.
Pick: Stanford +6.5
TRENDS:
- Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
- Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Cardinal are 28-8-1 ATS in their last 37 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cardinal are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall.
- Cardinal are 46-22-1 ATS in their last 69 games on grass.
- Cardinal are 33-16-1 ATS in their last 50 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 conference games.
- Cardinal are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
- Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 11-3 in Cardinal last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Cardinal last 11 games in September.
- Over is 5-2 in Cardinal last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 7-3 in Cardinal last 10 games on grass.
- Over is 7-3 in Cardinal last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 24-11 in Cardinal last 35 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Trojans last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 25-8-1 in Trojans last 34 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-3 in Trojans last 12 games on grass.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Trojans last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 21-7-1 in Trojans last 29 conference games.
- Under is 5-2 in Trojans last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-3 in Trojans last 10 games overall.
- Under is 34-16-2 in Trojans last 52 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 36-17 in Trojans last 53 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Southern California.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Southern California.
- Cardinal are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
- Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
- Road team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
- Over is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings.
