New Orleans (11-4) at Tampa Bay (4-11)
When: Sunday, December 31st 2017
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New Orleans -7/50.5
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The New Orleans Saints have already punched a ticket to the postseason, but there’s still a lot to play for when they visit the last-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon to conclude the regular season. With a win, the Saints will win the NFC South and secure at least one home game for the playoffs. New Orleans would also finish atop the division with either a loss by Carolina or a tie by both clubs. New Orleans has bounced back from a loss at Atlanta in Week 14 with back-to-back victories over the New York Jets and Falcons. The division crown would be the first since 2011 for the Saints, who went 7-9 in four of their last five seasons – including each of the last three. Tampa Bay will look to play spoiler and avoid ending the season with a six-game losing streak, as it has not posted a win since recording a 30-20 win at Miami on November 19th. The Bucs, however, have been competitive lately, losing the last four games by fewer than seven points, including last week’s 22-19 defeat at Carolina. Saints quarterback Drew Brees can set an NFL record for accuracy by completing at least 70% of his passes against the Bucs. He leads the NFL at 71.9% – Sam Bradford’s 71.6% mark last season is still the best in league history.
Brees passed 70,000 career passing yards last week against Atlanta, joining Peyton Manning and Brett Favre as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to accomplish the feat. With his 239 yards last week, he raised his season total to 4,089, extending his league record to 12 consecutive seasons of 4,000 or more. Wide receiver Michael Thomas has 98 catches on the season and is one of two players to have at least 90 receptions in each of his first two seasons in the NFL. He needs five more to surpass Jarvis Landry (194 from 2014-15) for most in his first two NFL seasons. The Saints defense has played solid all season and ranks ninth in the league in points allowed per game (19.7).
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At least one Buc has a chance at reaching a milestone shared by other great wide receivers. Mike Evans needs just 54 yards receiving to join Randy Moss and A.J. Green as the only players in NFL history with at least 1,000 in each of their first four seasons. Quarterback Jameis Winston lost three fumbles in last week’s loss to Carolina and has gone eight consecutive starts without a victory. Rookie Chris Godwin suffered an ankle injury last week and has not practiced while fellow wide receiver DeSean Jackson hopes to return from a similar ailment that kept him out of the contest with the Panthers. The Bucs defense, which ranks 31st overall and dead-last against the pass, could be in for a long day.
The Bucs have lost five in a row, but have been competitive in each of those contests. There were held to 10 points at New Orleans in Week 9, but should be able to at least double that total this time around at home and keep this one close.
Pick: Bucs +7
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. NFC South.
- Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games.
- Saints are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
- Saints are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Saints are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
- Saints are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC.
- Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
- Saints are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games in Week 17.
- Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Buccaneers are 24-49-1 ATS in their last 74 home games.
- Buccaneers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
- Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC South.
- Buccaneers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Buccaneers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 17.
- Buccaneers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Buccaneers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Buccaneers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
- Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 13-3 in Saints last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 road games.
- Under is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Saints last 8 vs. NFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 vs. NFC South.
- Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-4-1 in Buccaneers last 15 games in December.
- Under is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 vs. NFC.
- Under is 11-5-1 in Buccaneers last 17 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
