Colorado (91-72) at Chicago Cubs (95-68)
When: Tuesday, October 2nd 2018
Where: Wrigley Field,
Chicago, Illinois
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Chicago -128/7.5
On Monday, the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs played a pair of tiebreaker games with no fear of being eliminated from postseason contention. One day later, and the two will meet in a win or go home tilt at Wrigley Field in the National League Wild Card game. Both offenses struggled in their respective games, recording just three runs combined – all solo homers. Colorado got home runs from Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story in the ninth inning of a 5-2 setback to the Los Angeles Dodgers, while Anthony Rizzo went deep for Chicago’s only run in a 3-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Rockies are in the Wild Card game for the second consecutive year after losing to Arizona last season, while the Cubs last played in the Wild Card game in 2015, beating Pittsburgh. The Rockies won nine of 10 games prior to Monday’s loss – their fifth straight against the Dodgers. A pair of hot left handed pitchers will take the mound on Tuesday as Kyle Freeland faces veteran Jon Lester.
Pitchers: Rockies – Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 ERA) | Cubs – Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32)
Freeland ended the 2018 regular season with 11 consecutive quality starts in which he went 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA. Freeland was a master at Coors Field, but had moderate success on the road, going 7-5 with a 3.23 ERA in 18 starts. One of those starts was at Wrigley Field on April 30th in which he allowed three runs over seven innings.
Lester really turned his season around after a disastrous stretch in the middle of 2018 and will make his 22nd postseason start and his second in the Wild Card game. Lester finished 6-1 with a 1.71 ERA over his last eight starts, and he threw six scoreless innings to beat Pittsburgh in his regular-season finale. He is 1-3 with a 2.25 ERA in five career starts against the Rockies, and he allowed two unearned runs over 5.2 innings against Freeland on April 30th.
I have to side with the Rockies in this one. Yes, both teams have pressure to win and advance, but I believe the Cubs will face more of it playing at home after losing yesterday. Freeland will keep them off-balance and I can see the Rockies hitting Lester.
Pick: Rockies +125
BETTING TRENDS:
- Rockies are 7-1 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rockies are 9-2 in their last 11 overall.
- Rockies are 9-2 in their last 11 games on grass.
- Rockies are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rockies are 23-8 in their last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Rockies are 12-5 in their last 17 games following a loss.
- Rockies are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff road games.
- Rockies are 1-8 in their last 9 playoff games.
- Rockies are 7-0 in Freeland’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rockies are 5-0 in Freeland’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Rockies are 12-2 in Freeland’s last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rockies are 4-1 in Freeland’s last 5 road starts.
- Rockies are 4-1 in Freeland’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
- Rockies are 4-1 in Freeland’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rockies are 21-6 in Freeland’s last 27 starts.
- Rockies are 21-6 in Freeland’s last 27 starts on grass.
- Rockies are 19-7 in Freeland’s last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Rockies are 2-5 in Freeland’s last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 12-4 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 12-5 in their last 17 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 41-18 in their last 59 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 35-16 in their last 51 games following a loss.
- Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Cubs are 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Cubs are 21-5 in Lester’s last 26 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 25-6 in Lester’s last 31 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 8-2 in Lester’s last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Cubs are 11-3 in Lester’s last 14 Tuesday starts.
- Cubs are 38-13 in Lester’s last 51 home starts.
- Cubs are 19-7 in Lester’s last 26 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 18-7 in Lester’s last 25 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 28-11 in Lester’s last 39 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 37-15 in Lester’s last 52 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 37-16 in Lester’s last 53 starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rockies last 4 playoff games.
- Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Rockies last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Rockies last 6 road games.
- Under is 13-4 in Rockies last 17 games following a loss.
- Under is 9-3 in Rockies last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Rockies last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 28-10-2 in Rockies last 40 Tuesday games.
- Under is 22-8 in Rockies last 30 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Rockies last 8 on grass.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Rockies last 8 overall.
- Under is 10-4 in Rockies last 14 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Freeland’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Freeland’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Freeland’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 13-3 in Freeland’s last 16 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 21-7-2 in Freeland’s last 30 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 21-7-1 in Freeland’s last 29 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 42-16-3 in Freeland’s last 61 starts on grass.
- Under is 42-16-3 in Freeland’s last 61 starts overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 playoff home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 11-3 in Cubs last 14 home games.
- Under is 13-4 in Cubs last 17 Tuesday games.
- Under is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 playoff games.
- Under is 11-4 in Cubs last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 8-3 in Cubs last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 23-9 in Cubs last 32 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Lester’s last 6 Tuesday starts.
- Over is 6-1 in Lester’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 7-2 in Lester’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 12-5 in Lester’s last 17 starts on grass.
- Over is 12-5 in Lester’s last 17 starts overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 home starts vs. Rockies.
- Under is 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 starts vs. Rockies.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago.
- Rockies are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago.
