Houston (2-2) at Golden State (2-2)
When: Wednesday, May 8th, 2019
Where: Oracle Arena,
Oakland, CA
Time: 10:30 ET | TV: TNT
Opening Odds: Golden State -5.5/219
With Golden State’s star shooters struggling with their long range shots and the bench producing close to nothing, the Houston Rockets were able to grab two home wins to even their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal series at two games apiece. The series now shifts back to Oakland for Game 5 on Wednesday night with the Warriors set as 6-point favorites and a total of 219.5. For the second straight year, this series will come down to a best-of-three. In last year’s Western finals, Houston broke the 2-2 tie with a win in Game 5, but that was at home. Golden State then swept the final two games to reach the NBA Finals, where they captured their second straight championship and third in four years. After losing Games 2 and 5 at home to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round this year, the top-seeded Warriors held homecourt so far in this series with hard-fought, 104-100 and 115-109 victories. They outshot the Rockets 48.2 percent to 44.4 and outrebounded them 41.5 per game to 33.5 in those contests. The fourth-seeded Rockets came back in the next two with 126-121 and 112-108 home wins, dominating the Warriors on the boards 52.5 per game to 39.0, while also slightly outshooting Golden State 46.2 percent to 45.4. The Warriors might find themselves without or with a limited Andre Iguodala, who hyper-extended his left knee late in the game Monday. The Warriors’ top defender against James Harden has played 29 or more minutes in all four games of the series after playing more than 29 minutes just seven times during the regular season. He’s also started all four games alongside Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green – something he had never done in any regular-season game during his Warriors career. Game 6 will be back in Houston on Friday with a possible Game 7 set for Sunday in Oakland.
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Houston forward PJ Tucker, who had 17 points and 10 rebounds in Game 4, is averaging 12.3 points and 10.7 rebounds over the past three games. Iguodala, Durant and Thompson all took their shots at defending Harden in Game 4, but the bearded-wonder poured in a game-high 38 points to go along with 10 rebounds. Harden has connected on 18 3-pointers while averaging 35.8 points but the play of Eric Gordon has been terrific as the shooting guard has made 16 3-pointers while averaging 23 points.
Golden State has received just 18 total points from its bench in the back-to-back losses in Houston and only 42 in the series. Curry and Thompson have been way off thus far with Curry hitting 12-of-46 from 3-point range and Thompson just 8-of-26. Curry is averaging 21.3 points in the series and Thompson is at 15.3 per game, while Durant is averaging 36 points with a high game of 46 and a low of 29.
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Golden State hasn’t shot well and are getting nothing from their bench, yet they were in both games in Houston. The Rockets are just playing good defense on the perimeter. Houston has had success in Golden State and covered the spread in Game 1 and nearly did the same in Game 2. I can see another close contest here tonight, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Rockets +6
Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Pacific.
Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
Rockets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Rockets are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Western Conference.
Rockets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Rockets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
Rockets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rockets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games.
Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Warriors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
Warriors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Warriors are 11-23-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.
Under is 3-0-1 in Rockets last 4 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-1-1 in Rockets last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.
Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 18-6-3 in Rockets last 27 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 3-1-1 in Rockets last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
Under is 13-5-2 in Rockets last 20 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 18-7-1 in Rockets last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 5-2 in Rockets last 7 Wednesday games.
Under is 5-2-1 in Rockets last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 17-7-2 in Rockets last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 19-8-2 in Rockets last 29 overall.
Under is 16-7-1 in Rockets last 24 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 16-7-2 in Rockets last 25 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 34-16-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-0-1 in Warriors last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-0-1 in Warriors last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 Wednesday games.
Under is 9-2-1 in Warriors last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1-1 in Warriors last 6 overall.
Over is 4-1-1 in Warriors last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Warriors last 6 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 4-1-1 in Warriors last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Warriors last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.
Under is 9-3-1 in Warriors last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 8-3-1 in Warriors last 12 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 18-7-1 in Warriors last 26 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 11-5 in Warriors last 16 home games.
Rockets are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
