Rockets vs Spurs Betting Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [Game 1]

By
Jay Cooper
-

Houston (0-0) at San Antonio (0-0)
When: Monday, May 1st 2017
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Time: 9:35 ET | TV: TNT

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MVP-candidate James Harden takes his Houston Rockets on the road for Game 1 of their second round series against the veteran-laden San Antonio Spurs on Monday night. Harden was terrific in the first round series win against Oklahoma City until the final two games (13-of-41) when he was dealing with an ankle injury. Harden put up 29.8 points, 11.8 assists and 9.0 rebounds in four regular-season meetings against San Antonio, but the Spurs won three of the four matchups. Reserve shooting guard Lou Williams was second on the team in scoring in the first round behind Harden, averaging 18.8 points on 47.8% shooting. The Rockets, who led the NBA in 3-point attempts (40.3 per game) during the season, shot just 28.4% from beyond the arc in the first round, while Harden was 24.0%. Center Nene was almost perfect from the field against the Thunder, shooting 84.8% including a 12-for-12 effort in Game 4. The Rockets had just a 1.80 rebound margin over Oklahoma City in the first round and must be better against San Antonio, who was +4.50 (second behind Chicago). Houston has covered the spread just twice in the last seven meetings with the Spurs.

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With all the talk about Russell Westbrook and Harden for MVP, the best player in this postseason might be San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard. San Antonio would not be the second-best team in the league without him. Leonard averaged 31.2 points on 54.8% shooting, six rebounds and two steals in the six-game win over the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and consistently attacked the basket, leading to a 59-of-61 effort from the free-throw line. While Leonard carried the heaviest load for San Antonio in the first round, the team also enjoyed strong performances from some of its veterans including Manu Ginobili, who scored 10 points in Game 5. Point guard Tony Parker averaged 16.3 points in the series and exploded for 27 in the Game 6 series clincher. San Antonio, which led the NBA in 3-point percentage (39.1) during the regular season, shot 40.9% in the first round – second to only Milwaukee (41.2). Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge led the Spurs in rebounding (7.3) while averaging 14.8 points on 45.3% shooting.

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Houston will need to shoot a much better percentage from three-point land if they want to keep up with San Antonio. The Spurs will win the battle underneath, so Houston will need to make their shots. Harden should be rested and will be able to keep his team in the opening game. I’ll take the points.

Pick: Rockets +5.5

ATS TRENDS

Houston
  • Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.
  • Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
  • Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
  • Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
  • Rockets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Rockets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.
  • Rockets are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
  • Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
  • Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
  • Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
San Antonio
  • Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
  • Spurs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
  • Spurs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.
  • Spurs are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 Monday games.
  • Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.

OU TRENDS

Houston
  • Under is 4-0-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Over is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 15-5-1 in Rockets last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Under is 6-2 in Rockets last 8 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 12-4-1 in Rockets last 17 vs. NBA Southwest.
  • Under is 9-3 in Rockets last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 18-7-1 in Rockets last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Under is 23-9-1 in Rockets last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 10-4-1 in Rockets last 15 road games.
  • Under is 12-5 in Rockets last 17 games following a ATS loss.
San Antonio
  • Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 overall.
  • Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 vs. Western Conference.
  • Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 vs. NBA Southwest.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Under is 22-7-1 in Spurs last 30 Monday games.
  • Under is 6-2-1 in Spurs last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
  • Under is 18-8-2 in Spurs last 28 games following a straight up win.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio.
  • Rockets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
  • Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

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