Boston (1-1) at NY Yankees (1-1)
When: Monday, October 8th 2018
Where: Yankee Stadium,
Bronx, New York
Time: 7:40 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: New York -167/8.5
The New York Yankees powered their way through the regular season with an MLB record 267 home runs and have kept it going into the postseason thus far. New York used a pair of dingers from Gary Sanchez and another bomb from Aaron Judge to tie their best-of-five ALDS against the Boston Red Sox at a game a piece after Saturday’s 6-2 victory at Fenway Park. The series now shifts to the Bronx for Game 3 with New York ace Luis Severino going up against righty Nathan Eovaldi. The Yankees have recorded six home runs in the first three postseason games of 2018 including Judge, who has homered in each game and is 7-for-12 with five runs scored and four RBIs in the playoffs. Boston received a poor effort from starter David Price in Game 2 after he allowed three runs – two homers- and two walks in just an inning and two-thirds after winning 16 games during the regular season. Mookie Betts, who won the AL batting title while hitting .346 for Boston, is 1-for-7 with a pair of strikeouts in the series and first baseman Mitch Moreland suffered a hamstring injury in Game 2 and is questionable for Monday after receiving aggressive treatment. New York was 6-3 against their rivals at Yankee Stadium this season.
Pitchers: Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81 ERA) | Yankees – Luis Severino (0-0, 0.00)
Eovaldi will get the nod instead of Rick Porcello, who threw 15 pitches in relief in Friday’s series opener. Eovaldi will be making his postseason debut and posted a 1.93 ERA in four starts against New York during the regular season. He did not allow an earned run in three starts (16 innings) versus the Yankees after being traded to the Red Sox at the July 31st deadline.
Severino will take the mound for the second time in less than a week after helping his team defeat the Oakland A’s in Wednesday’s Wild Card game, allowing two hits along with four walks over four scoreless innings while striking out seven. Because of the walks, Severino needed 87 pitches to get through those four innings and is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five career postseason starts, with the lone win coming over Cleveland in the 2017 ALDS. He started five games against Boston this season, going 2-2 with a 3.56 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 30.1 innings.
I know Eovaldi was great against New York this season, but this Yankees team is healthy and mashing the crap out of the ball right now. Also, Eovaldi was not good away from home this season, posting a 5.14 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Look for the Yankees to get to him early and often in this one.
Pick: Yankees -165
BETTING TRENDS:
- Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 Monday games.
- Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 40-12 in their last 52 during game 3 of a series.
- Red Sox are 48-20 in their last 68 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 56-24 in their last 80 games on grass.
- Red Sox are 87-38 in their last 125 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 41-18 in their last 59 games following an off day.
- Red Sox are 38-17 in their last 55 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 40-18 in their last 58 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 58-28 in their last 86 overall.
- Red Sox are 43-21 in their last 64 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Red Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 playoff games.
- Red Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 Divisional Playoff games.
- Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff road games.
- Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff road games.
- Red Sox are 2-5 in Eovaldi’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 2-6 in Eovaldi’s last 8 starts.
- Red Sox are 1-4 in Eovaldi’s last 5 road starts.
- Red Sox are 1-5 in Eovaldi’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 playoff home games.
- Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff home games.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 18-7 in their last 25 vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 48-19 in their last 67 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
- Yankees are 59-24 in their last 83 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Yankees are 73-31 in their last 104 home games.
- Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 8-20 in their last 28 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 0-8 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Yankees are 23-4 in Severino’s last 27 home starts.
- Yankees are 17-4 in Severino’s last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 17-5 in Severino’s last 22 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Yankees are 20-6 in Severino’s last 26 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 40-12 in Severino’s last 52 starts.
- Yankees are 16-5 in Severino’s last 21 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 12-4 in Severino’s last 16 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Yankees are 27-9 in Severino’s last 36 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 9-3 in Severino’s last 12 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 42-15 in Severino’s last 57 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 19-7 in Severino’s last 26 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 20-8 in Severino’s last 28 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Red Sox last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Red Sox last 10 vs. American League East.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Red Sox last 8 games following an off day.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Red Sox last 8 on grass.
- Over is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Red Sox last 8 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games.
- Over is 8-2-2 in Red Sox last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 8-2 in Red Sox last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 18-6-2 in Red Sox last 26 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-3 in Red Sox last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Red Sox last 8 Monday games.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Eovaldi’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Eovaldi’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Eovaldi’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Eovaldi’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Eovaldi’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-2-2 in Eovaldi’s last 9 starts overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 9-0 in Yankees last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Yankees last 9 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 vs. American League East.
- Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 Divisional Playoff home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 home games.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 14-3 in Yankees last 17 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 13-3 in Yankees last 16 games following a win.
- Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 playoff home games.
- Over is 6-2 in Yankees last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 8-3 in Yankees last 11 games following an off day.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Yankees last 11 Divisional Playoff games.
- Over is 9-0 in Severino’s last 9 Monday starts.
- Over is 8-0 in Severino’s last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 starts overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Severino’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Severino’s last 8 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Severino’s last 26 home starts.
- Over is 7-3 in Severino’s last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 home starts vs. Red Sox.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York.
- Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 home starts vs. Red Sox.
- Over is 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 starts vs. Red Sox.
- Red Sox are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
