Boston (77-70) at Philadelphia (76-70)
When: Saturday, September 14, 2019
Where: Citizens Bank Park,
Philadelphia, PA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: NESN,
NBCS Philadelphia
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -119/9
The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies have almost identical records heading into their two-game interleague set on Saturday, but only one of them has a legitimate shot at making the postseason. The Red Sox have been fading out of contention for some time now and the Phillies need to rally soon or they’ll be headed to the exits. The Phillies begin a brutal stretch run in which they will play its next 11 games on the road after this weekend against teams with winning records before finishing at home with the Miami Marlins. Philly will enter Saturday’s series opener 2.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second NL wild card spot after getting the day off on Friday. It was an encouraging start to the six-game homestand after the Phillies split four games with the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, whom they will play beginning Tuesday. The defending World Series champion Red Sox are reduced to spoilers and celebrating the personal accomplishments of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. Bogaerts is the second shortstop in major league history to record 30 home runs and 50 doubles in a season while Devers needs one homer to join Bogaerts as the only teammates in club history to have 30 and 50 in the same season. Add J.D. Martinez to the mix and the trio can become the first to hit at least .300 and smack 30 homers in one year.
Pitchers: Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez (17-6, 3.73 ERA) | Phillies – Aaron Nola (12-5, 3.70)
Rodriguez has three scoreless outings and a one-run performance over his last five starts but took a hard-luck loss last time out. He allowed just a single run and five hits with nine strikeouts in six innings against the New York Yankees on Monday but the offense let him down in the 5-0 setback. Rodriguez didn’t pitch in the Phillies’ two-game sweep at Fenway Park last month, but did win his start against the Phillies during his 2015 rookie season by allowing one run over seven innings.
The Phillies have lost Nola’s last four starts and the last two were sub-par efforts from the young righty. Nola allowed four runs, six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings of a 7-2 loss to Atlanta on Monday after allowing five runs in a loss to Cincinnati in his previous outing. Nola, who is 6-2 with a 3.02 ERA in 18 home starts this season is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts versus the Red Sox including a win last month.
Nola hasn’t been pitching well, but did dazzle the Red Sox on the road last month and I expect the same type of effort this time around. Boston has been shutout or held to one run in four of their last eight games and really have nothing to play for.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Saturday. He is 129-86 +3063 units on the season after a 30-13 run!
Pick: Phillies -120
BETTING TRENDS:
Red Sox are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Red Sox are 23-6 in their last 29 interleague road games.
Red Sox are 39-13 in their last 52 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 38-14 in their last 52 interleague games.
Red Sox are 48-18 in their last 66 vs. National League East.
Red Sox are 20-8 in their last 28 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 road games.
Red Sox are 36-16 in their last 52 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 17-8 in their last 25 during game 1 of a series.
Red Sox are 81-39 in their last 120 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 Saturday games.
Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 5-16 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win.
Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 14-2 in Rodriguez’s last 16 interleague starts.
Red Sox are 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 Saturday starts.
Red Sox are 23-6 in Rodriguez’s last 29 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Red Sox are 22-6 in Rodriguez’s last 28 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Red Sox are 21-6 in Rodriguez’s last 27 road starts.
Red Sox are 42-12 in Rodriguez’s last 54 starts.
Red Sox are 42-12 in Rodriguez’s last 54 starts on grass.
Red Sox are 16-5 in Rodriguez’s last 21 starts during game 1 of a series.
Red Sox are 38-13 in Rodriguez’s last 51 starts with 4 days of rest.
Red Sox are 21-8 in Rodriguez’s last 29 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 23-9 in Rodriguez’s last 32 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 9-4 in Rodriguez’s last 13 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games.
Phillies are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. American League East.
Phillies are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win.
Phillies are 3-9 in their last 12 Saturday games.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-0 in Nola’s last 4 interleague starts.
Phillies are 6-1 in Nola’s last 7 Saturday starts.
Phillies are 4-1 in Nola’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Phillies are 20-7 in Nola’s last 27 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 30-13 in Nola’s last 43 home starts.
Phillies are 9-4 in Nola’s last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 0-4 in Nola’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 0-5 in Nola’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Phillies are 0-4 in Nola’s last 4 starts.
Phillies are 0-4 in Nola’s last 4 starts on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-1 in Red Sox last 5 vs. National League East.
Under is 9-1 in Red Sox last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1 in Red Sox last 8 on grass.
Under is 9-2 in Red Sox last 11 overall.
Under is 13-3-1 in Red Sox last 17 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-3-2 in Red Sox last 14 Saturday games.
Under is 9-3-1 in Red Sox last 13 games following a win.
Under is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 46-20-2 in Red Sox last 68 games following an off day.
Under is 4-0 in Rodriguez’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 10-2 in Rodriguez’s last 12 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 14-3 in Rodriguez’s last 17 road starts.
Over is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 Saturday starts.
Under is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 starts on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 starts overall.
Over is 8-2 in Rodriguez’s last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 10-3 in Rodriguez’s last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 11-4 in Rodriguez’s last 15 interleague starts.
Under is 35-17-1 in Rodriguez’s last 53 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 Saturday games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Phillies last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-1-1 in Phillies last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 11-3-1 in Phillies last 15 vs. American League East.
Under is 12-4 in Phillies last 16 games following an off day.
Over is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 on grass.
Under is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 overall.
Over is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 11-4 in Phillies last 15 interleague home games.
Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-2-1 in Phillies last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 31-14-6 in Phillies last 51 interleague games.
Over is 4-0-1 in Nola’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Nola’s last 4 starts vs. American League East.
Under is 6-1-1 in Nola’s last 8 interleague starts.
Under is 5-1-1 in Nola’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 8-2-1 in Nola’s last 11 Saturday starts.
Over is 4-1-1 in Nola’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1-1 in Nola’s last 6 home starts.
Over is 4-1-1 in Nola’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Nola’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Nola’s last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings.
Red Sox are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
