Boston (86-35) at Philadelphia (65-53)
When: Wednesday, August 15th 2018
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Boston -145/9
The high-powered Boston Red Sox offense has struggled to score runs against the Philadelphia Phillies this year, but still own a 2-1 edge in the season series after Tuesday’s 2-1 victory at Citizens Bank Park. The Sox look to sweep the two-game interleague set on Wednesday night as Nathan Eovaldi goes up against Vince Velasquez. The Red Sox scored just three runs in splitting a two-game set with Philadelphia back at Fenway Park at the end of July, but Boston’s pitching is causing all kinds of problems for the second-place team in the NL East. The Phillies have dropped four of their last five overall, scoring just nine runs in that stretch, and are now two games behind Atlanta in the division. Brock Holt belted a pinch-hit, go-ahead homer in the eighth inning and Sandy Leon also went deep for Boston, which won for the fifth straight time and 11 of 12 overall. Holt has two homers, six RBIs and five runs scored during his six-game hitting streak for the Red Sox, who lead the majors in most offensive categories. Boston All-Star outfielder Mookie Betts is 16-for-36 with two homers, six RBIs and 12 runs scored during a nine-game hitting streak, while Philadelphia’s Carlos Santana is mired in a 3-for-27 slump.
Pitchers: Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi (5-4, 3.74 ERA) | Phillies – Vince Velasquez (8-9, 3.98)
Eovaldi was brilliant in his first two starts with Boston after coming over from Tampa Bay, pitching 15 innings of scoreless baseball. The next outing didn’t go so well, as he was shelled by the Baltimore Orioles for eight runs – four earned – and 10 hits in 2.2 innings. It was the second time in the last five outings that Eovaldi has allowed eight runs (July 13th vs. Minnesota). He is 3-4 with a 3.51 ERA in nine career starts versus Philadelphia.
Velasquez is coming off his worst outing in almost two months after allowing four runs in as many innings of a 6-0 setback at Arizona. The run total was the largest for Velasquez since June 19th against St. Louis. He had allowed two or fewer earned runs in the seven starts in-between. He won his only career start versus Boston while pitching for Houston during his rookie season in 2015, allowing three runs and striking out seven in six innings.
The Phillies’ offense is really in a funk right now and it won’t matter how well Velasquez does in this one. I expect Boston to hit Velasquez hard and cruise to a victory.
Pick: Red Sox –123
BETTING TRENDS:
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 21-5 in their last 26 Wednesday games.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Red Sox are 43-12 in their last 55 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 42-12 in their last 54 interleague games.
- Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 44-13 in their last 57 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 40-12 in their last 52 games on grass.
- Red Sox are 43-13 in their last 56 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 42-13 in their last 55 overall.
- Red Sox are 18-6 in their last 24 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 41-14 in their last 55 vs. National League East.
- Red Sox are 38-13 in their last 51 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 19-7 in their last 26 interleague road games.
- Red Sox are 40-15 in their last 55 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 44-19 in their last 63 road games.
- Red Sox are 67-30 in their last 97 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 37-18 in their last 55 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
- Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 interleague games.
- Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 42-20 in their last 62 home games.
- Phillies are 4-10 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Phillies are 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Phillies are 4-9 in Velasquez’s last 13 starts.
- Phillies are 4-9 in Velasquez’s last 13 starts on grass.
- Phillies are 8-20 in Velasquez’s last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 4-10 in Velasquez’s last 14 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 4-11 in Velasquez’s last 15 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Phillies are 1-4 in Velasquez’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 1-4 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Phillies are 1-6 in Velasquez’s last 7 Wednesday starts.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 games following a win.
- Under is 9-0-2 in Red Sox last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 interleague games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Red Sox last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Red Sox last 11 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Red Sox last 11 interleague road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 15-5-2 in Red Sox last 22 on grass.
- Under is 15-5-2 in Red Sox last 22 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 Wednesday games.
- Under is 6-0 in Phillies last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-0 in Phillies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 6-0 in Phillies last 6 interleague home games.
- Under is 8-0 in Phillies last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 6-0 in Phillies last 6 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 9-1-1 in Phillies last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 9-1-1 in Phillies last 11 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 Wednesday games.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Phillies last 16 on grass.
- Under is 12-3-1 in Phillies last 16 overall.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 home games.
- Under is 12-4-5 in Phillies last 21 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 12-4-1 in Phillies last 17 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 40-15-4 in Phillies last 59 games following a loss.
- Under is 16-6-4 in Phillies last 26 interleague games.
- Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 34-14-3 in Phillies last 51 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 36-15-5 in Phillies last 56 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-0 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-0 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 home starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 7-2 in Velasquez’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Velasquez’s last 7 Wednesday starts.
- Under is 7-3 in Velasquez’s last 10 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 9-4 in Velasquez’s last 13 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0-2 in the last 8 meetings.
- Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
- Red Sox are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.
- Red Sox are 35-17 in the last 52 meetings.
