Boston (47-22) at Seattle (44-24)
When: Thursday, June 14th 2018
Where: Safeco Field, Seattle, WA
Time: 10:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Boston -140/8
The Seattle Mariners aren’t known for the long ball, especially when they play at Safeco Field, but this isn’t the same team we’ve seen in years past either. The Mariners bombed 10 blasts in a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels, including four by Ryon Healy and three by Mitch Haniger, who belted a walk-off two-run shot in Wednesday’s 8-6 victory. Healy was 6-for-11 with five RBIs and five runs scored in the three-game series versus the Angels. Veteran slugger Nelson Cruz has five homers and seven RBIs in his last five games. The first place Mariners will welcome the best of the American League on Thursday, as they begin a four-game series with the Boston Red Sox. David Price, who is 5-0 over his last six outings, will square off against former American League Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez in the series opener. Boston began a 10-game road trip by completing a three-game sweep of major league-worst Baltimore, outscoring the Orioles 13-5 to improve to 24-11 away from Fenway Park. J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts belted solo home runs for the surging Red Sox, giving the duo 22 and 18 home runs, respectively. The Boston offense ranks first or second in runs (5.13), average (.262), OPS (.786), home runs (99), and stolen bases (50).
Pitchers: Red Sox – David Price (7-4, 4.00 ERA) | Mariners – Felix Hernandez (6-5, 5.70)
Price, who hasn’t lost in more than a month, won his third straight outing by limiting the Chicago White Sox to two runs and five hits over six innings on Saturday. In his last six starts, Price has allowed a total of 12 runs dating back to May 12th. He has made seven career starts against the Mariners, posting a 3-1 record and 2.62 ERA, but Cruz is 9-for-28 with a pair of homers off Price.
Hernandez has shown signs of his old-self, but for the most part, has been the worst member of the Seattle rotation. He followed up his longest outing of the year with his shortest, lasting three innings and allowing six runs (five earned) on seven hits in a loss at Tampa Bay. He beat the Rays a week earlier with eight dominant innings, allowing one run on five hits while matching his season high with seven strikeouts. Hernandez is 8-4 with a 4.01 ERA lifetime versus the Red Sox, but he hasn’t beaten them in four years.
Seattle looks very tempting at +120 here, but I don’t trust Hernandez anymore, especially against this Red Sox lineup. Price has been terrific over the last month and I say Boston gets the opener of what should be a terrific series.
Pick: Red Sox -130
BETTING TRENDS:
- Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 38-14 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 37-16 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Red Sox are 46-21 in their last 67 overall.
- Red Sox are 35-16 in their last 51 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 42-20 in their last 62 road games.
- Red Sox are 37-18 in their last 55 games on grass.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Price’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Price’s last 6 starts.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in Price’s last 4 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in Price’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Price’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Red Sox are 4-1 in Price’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 8-3 in Price’s last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Red Sox are 5-2 in Price’s last 7 road starts.
- Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League East.
- Mariners are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Mariners are 21-7 in their last 28 overall.
- Mariners are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 19-7 in their last 26 games on grass.
- Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 Thursday games.
- Mariners are 4-9 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Mariners are 5-12 in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Mariners are 5-0 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Mariners are 5-0 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 5-2 in Hernandez’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
- Mariners are 5-2 in Hernandez’s last 7 Thursday starts.
- Mariners are 12-5 in Hernandez’s last 17 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 29-14 in Hernandez’s last 43 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Mariners are 1-4 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Red Sox last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-1 in Red Sox last 8 on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 Thursday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Red Sox last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 5-1 in Price’s last 6 starts vs. American League West.
- Over is 16-5 in Price’s last 21 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 8-3 in Price’s last 11 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-2 in Price’s last 7 Thursday starts.
- Over is 5-2 in Price’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Mariners last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Mariners last 6 home games.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Mariners last 13 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Hernandez’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Hernandez’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Hernandez’s last 5 Thursday starts.
- Over is 8-2 in Hernandez’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Hernandez’s last 5 home starts.
- Under is 6-2 in Hernandez’s last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 6-2 in Hernandez’s last 8 starts overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Hernandez’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
- Over is 6-1 in Hernandez’s last 7 starts vs. Red Sox.
- Mariners are 5-1 in Hernandez’s last 6 home starts vs. Red Sox.
- Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Seattle.
- Over is 5-2 in Hernandez’s last 7 home starts vs. Red Sox.
