Tampa Bay (2-2) at Houston (2-2)
When: Thursday, October 10th 2019
Where: Minute Maid Park,
Houston, Texas
Time: 7:07 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Houston -290/7.5
It appeared the MLB-best Houston Astros were on their way to a ALDS sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays, enabling them to reset their dominant starting pitching staff in preparation for the New York Yankees. Well, the Rays had other ideas, and after pounding Zack Greinke in Game 3, Tampa was able to get to Justin Verlander on short-rest to force a winner-take-all Game 5 back at Minute Maid Park. Verlander faltered in a rare poor performance in Game 4, as he was tagged for seven hits and four earned runs over just 3.2 innings. Houston will turn to Ace 1A for Thursday’s Game 5 in Gerrit Cole, who pitched 7.2 innings and struck out a team record 15 en route to a Game 2 victory. The Rays will turn to Tyler Glasnow after finishing the regular season strong with a 1.78 ERA and a 6-1 record. He struggled in Game 1 against Houston, though, pitching just 4.1 innings and giving up four hits and three walks. The pressure is all on Houston to win and are huge -265 favorites on the betting line. Houston is just 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position in the last three games and need some hits from George Springer (2-for-17 in the series), Michael Brantley (2-for-16) and Josh Reddick (0-for-7). The Rays are 49-35 on the road including playoffs, while Houston is a sparkling 62-21 at Minute Maid Park.
Pitchers: Rays – Tyler Glasnow (0-1, 4.15 ERA) | Astros – Gerrit Cole (1-0, 0.00)
Glasnow carried his regular season momentum into Game 1 of this series and didn’t allow a run through four innings until Jose Altuve blasted a two-run shot in the fifth. The three walks he surrendered got his pitch count up to 76 after throwing no more than 66 pitches in four September outings. Glasnow earned the win at home against the Astros in the opening series in March, allowing one run in five innings.
Cole’s Game 2 victory over Tampa Bay improved his postseason record to 3-3 with a 2.95 ERA in six outings and went 12-2 with a 2.63 ERA at Minute Maid Park this season. Cole was 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA in two starts versus Tampa Bay in the regular season with 24 strikeouts over 12.2 innings, bringing his total to 39 Ks in three outings against them.
I went with Cole in Game 2 thinking there was nothing the Rays could do against him, and I’m doing the same this time around. He has 39 strikeouts in less than 20 innings this season against Tampa and the Astros are 16-2 when he starts at home.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Thursday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: Astros -1.5 -120
BETTING TRENDS:
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Rays are 13-4 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.
Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rays are 63-26 in their last 89 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rays are 23-10 in their last 33 overall.
Rays are 36-16 in their last 52 games following a win.
Rays are 49-24 in their last 73 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rays are 32-68 in their last 100 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Rays are 3-8 in their last 11 Divisional Playoff games.
Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff road games.
Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff road games.
Rays are 5-0 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Rays are 6-1 in Glasnow’s last 7 road starts.
Rays are 6-1 in Glasnow’s last 7 starts on grass.
Rays are 5-1 in Glasnow’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rays are 4-1 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
Rays are 4-1 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts.
Rays are 1-4 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Rays are 1-5 in Glasnow’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff home games.
Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 39-12 in their last 51 home games.
Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff games.
Astros are 48-17 in their last 65 games on grass.
Astros are 52-19 in their last 71 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a loss.
Astros are 37-14 in their last 51 games following an off day.
Astros are 50-20 in their last 70 overall.
Astros are 20-8 in their last 28 playoff home games.
Astros are 17-7 in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Astros are 18-8 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 17-8 in their last 25 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff games.
Astros are 5-0 in Cole’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 6-0 in Cole’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
Astros are 5-0 in Cole’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 10-1 in Cole’s last 11 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 27-4 in Cole’s last 31 home starts.
Astros are 22-4 in Cole’s last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Astros are 52-14 in Cole’s last 66 starts on grass.
Astros are 52-16 in Cole’s last 68 starts.
Astros are 16-5 in Cole’s last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 16-5 in Cole’s last 21 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 5-1 in Rays last 6 Divisional Playoff road games.
Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games following a win.
Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Rays last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 15-6-1 in Rays last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-3 in Rays last 10 overall.
Under is 4-0-1 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 4-1-1 in Glasnow’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Glasnow’s last 5 road starts.
Under is 6-2-1 in Glasnow’s last 9 starts on grass.
Under is 6-2-2 in Glasnow’s last 10 starts overall.
Under is 3-1-2 in Glasnow’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-2 in Glasnow’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 during game 5 of a series.
Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 games following a loss.
Over is 9-2 in Astros last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 13-3-1 in Astros last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games.
Over is 12-4 in Astros last 16 Divisional Playoff home games.
Over is 17-6 in Astros last 23 Divisional Playoff games.
Over is 19-7-1 in Astros last 27 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 8-3-1 in Astros last 12 vs. American League East.
Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 games following an off day.
Over is 7-3 in Astros last 10 playoff games.
Under is 4-1 in Cole’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 4-1 in Cole’s last 5 starts on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Cole’s last 5 starts overall.
Over is 6-2 in Cole’s last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Cole’s last 7 home starts.
Over is 5-2 in Cole’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Rays are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.
