Tampa Bay (0-1) at Houston (1-0)
When: Saturday, October 5th 2019
Where: Minute Maid Park,
Houston, Texas
Time: 9:07 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Houston -285/7.5
The Tampa Bay Rays have a tough task ahead of them if they want to advance to the American League Championship Series and will counter with a Cy Young Award winner of their own when they try and even the ALDS with the Houston Astros. As I predicted on Friday, the Astros used a dominate effort from Justin Verlander and a potent offense to open the series up with an easy 6-2 victory. Jose Altuve slugged his ninth career postseason home run and Verlander allowed one hit over seven scoreless innings as the Astros seek their second World Series title in three seasons. Altuve snapped a scoreless tie and keyed a four-run fifth inning with his two-run shot to left field off Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow. Tampa Bay, who belted four homers in defeating Oakland in the wild card game on Wednesday, will have to face another Cy Young candidate when Houston sends right-hander Gerrit Cole to the mound. The Rays will counter with reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell in Saturday’s must-win Game 2. Tampa was able to put a couple of runs on the board late including a pinch-hit RBI from Eric Sogard who hadn’t played since September 15th (foot).
Pitchers: Rays – Blake Snell (6-8, 4.29 ERA) | Astros – Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50)
Like Glasnow, Snell is still gaining arm strength after an elbow procedure that forced him to the injured list for nearly two months and was limited to no more than 62 pitches in his three September starts. He was 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in those three outings with five walks over six innings of work. Snell faced the Astros on Opening Day back in March and allowed five runs and three homers over six innings.
Verlander might be the ‘ace’ of the staff, but Cole had better numbers than him this season, leading the AL in ERA and the majors with 326 strikeouts. The Astros were 26-7 when he started including 15-2 at Minute Maid Park and didn’t allow more than two runs in any of his six September starts. Cole, who is 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA in five career postseason starts, allowed eight runs (five earned) over two starts against Tampa Bay this season, but struck out 24 in 12.2 innings.
Like yesterday, I don’t know how the Rays are going to score enough runs to beat this powerful Houston team. Cole is going to strike out 10+ in this contest and the Astros are going to roll once again. I really want to lay 2.5 runs on this game, but that’s just pushing it. Take the runline.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Saturday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: Astros -1.5 -145
BETTING TRENDS:
Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games.
Rays are 17-5 in their last 22 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rays are 21-9 in their last 30 overall.
Rays are 32-67 in their last 99 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 playoff games.
Rays are 1-7 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff games.
Rays are 0-4 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff road games.
Rays are 13-3 in Snell’s last 16 starts during game 2 of a series.
Rays are 13-3 in Snell’s last 16 starts vs. American League West.
Rays are 4-1 in Snell’s last 5 Saturday starts.
Rays are 7-2 in Snell’s last 9 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rays are 13-4 in Snell’s last 17 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 16-5 in Snell’s last 21 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 19-7 in Snell’s last 26 starts with 5 days of rest.
Rays are 15-6 in Snell’s last 21 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Rays are 20-8 in Snell’s last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Rays are 5-2 in Snell’s last 7 starts.
Rays are 7-3 in Snell’s last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rays are 2-5 in Snell’s last 7 starts on grass.
Rays are 1-4 in Snell’s last 5 road starts.
Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff home games.
Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
Astros are 22-6 in their last 28 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Astros are 41-12 in their last 53 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 41-13 in their last 54 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Astros are 39-13 in their last 52 home games.
Astros are 41-14 in their last 55 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 42-15 in their last 57 games following a win.
Astros are 47-17 in their last 64 games on grass.
Astros are 11-4 in their last 15 playoff home games.
Astros are 49-18 in their last 67 overall.
Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. American League East.
Astros are 37-14 in their last 51 Saturday games.
Astros are 16-7 in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Astros are 55-25 in their last 80 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 17-8 in their last 25 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 35-17 in their last 52 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 63-31 in their last 94 during game 2 of a series.
Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games.
Astros are 4-0 in Cole’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 4-0 in Cole’s last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
Astros are 5-0 in Cole’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
Astros are 6-0 in Cole’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 11-1 in Cole’s last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 26-4 in Cole’s last 30 home starts.
Astros are 6-1 in Cole’s last 7 Saturday starts.
Astros are 18-4 in Cole’s last 22 starts with 5 days of rest.
Astros are 51-14 in Cole’s last 65 starts on grass.
Astros are 51-16 in Cole’s last 67 starts.
Astros are 19-7 in Cole’s last 26 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 23-9 in Cole’s last 32 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 20-8 in Cole’s last 28 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 Divisional Playoff road games.
Under is 3-0-1 in Rays last 4 Saturday games.
Over is 6-1 in Rays last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games following a loss.
Over is 4-1 in Rays last 5 on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Rays last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
Over is 16-5-1 in Rays last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Rays last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 20-7 in Rays last 27 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 11-4 in Rays last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 19-7 in Rays last 26 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Rays last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Rays last 7 overall.
Over is 10-4-1 in Rays last 15 playoff road games.
Over is 10-4 in Rays last 14 vs. American League West.
Over is 13-6 in Rays last 19 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-0-2 in Snell’s last 7 Saturday starts.
Over is 3-0-1 in Snell’s last 4 starts on grass.
Over is 4-0-1 in Snell’s last 5 road starts.
Over is 3-0-1 in Snell’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-1-2 in Snell’s last 13 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 12-3-1 in Snell’s last 16 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Over is 4-1-2 in Snell’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Snell’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Snell’s last 6 starts vs. American League West.
Under is 10-3-1 in Snell’s last 14 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-2-2 in Snell’s last 10 starts overall.
Under is 9-3-2 in Snell’s last 14 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Snell’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 home games.
Over is 6-1 in Astros last 7 playoff games.
Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 Divisional Playoff home games.
Over is 12-3-1 in Astros last 16 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 12-3-2 in Astros last 17 vs. American League East.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 6-2 in Astros last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-2 in Astros last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 12-4-1 in Astros last 17 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 20-7 in Astros last 27 Divisional Playoff games.
Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 playoff home games.
Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Astros last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 7-3 in Astros last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in Cole’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 10-2 in Cole’s last 12 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Cole’s last 6 home starts.
Over is 4-1 in Cole’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Over is 4-1 in Cole’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 4-1 in Cole’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Cole’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Cole’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Under is 4-0 in Snell’s last 4 starts vs. Astros.
Rays are 4-1 in Snell’s last 5 starts vs. Astros.
Rays are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
