Tampa Bay (0-0) at Houston (0-0)
When: Friday, October 4th 2019
Where: Minute Maid Park,
Houston, Texas
Time: 2:05 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Houston -210/7.5
The Houston Astros have the most featured starting rotation when it comes to dominance and playoff experience, but the Tampa Bay Rays pitch pretty good as well. The teams will begin a five-game American League Division Series on Friday afternoon at Minute Maid Park with veteran Justin Verlander going up against the 26-year-old Tyler Glasnow. Houston is seeking its second World Series title in three seasons and won an MLB-best 107 games in 2019 behind a pair of 2-game winners, explosive offense, and a Rookie of the Year candidate. The Astros closed strong to claim homefield advantage throughout the postseason and finished with a league-best 60-21 home record while winning six of their final seven games. Perennial All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa missed the final six games of the regular season with tightness in his back, but will play in the series opener. Tampa Bay finished with with 96 wins but needed four home runs in Tuesday’s wild card win over Oakland and have the AL’s best collective ERA at 3.65. First baseman Yandy Diaz played just his second game since July 22nd and smacked two home runs in Tuesday’s 5-1 victory as +114 underdogs on the road. The Rays won four of the seven meetings with Houston this season, but allowed 31 runs in dropping two of three at Minute Maid.
Pitchers: Rays – Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA) | Astros – Justin Verlander (21-6, 2.58)
Glasnow was looking like a Cy Young-candidate until a right forearm strain sidelined him for four months. He came out of the gate by allowing two runs or less in each of his first seven starts, until he suffered his injury on May 10th against the New York Yankees. He returned to action on September 10th and didn’t allow a run over his last three starts, but threw no more than 66 pitches in any outing as he was building his arm strength back up. Glasnow, who was 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA in six road starts, allowed one run over five innings in beating the Astros on April 30th.
Verlander is coming off another Cy Young-type season in which he won 21 games and will battle teammate Gerrit Cole for those honors. The 36-year-old was second in strikeouts to Cole with a career-high 300 and will make his ninth postseason appearance and eighth start since joining the Astros. He is 6-2 with a 2.83 ERA in the playoffs with Houston and has won all seven career decisions in the ALDS. Verlander allowed one run and seven hits over 12.1 innings in winning both decisions this season against Tampa Bay.
Houston is favored to win the Fall Classic and they should be with this roster. Playing this team in a short five-game series will be tough with the starters they can throw at you beginning with Verlander. He’s the one pitcher I would choose to pitch in games like this. The Rays don’t have enough offense to keep up with Houston.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Friday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: Astros -1.5 -105
BETTING TRENDS:
Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 Friday games.
Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day.
Rays are 13-5 in their last 18 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 35-16 in their last 51 games following a win.
Rays are 49-23 in their last 72 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rays are 38-18 in their last 56 overall.
Rays are 35-17 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rays are 32-66 in their last 98 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Rays are 1-6 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff games.
Rays are 6-0 in Glasnow’s last 6 road starts.
Rays are 4-0 in Glasnow’s last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Rays are 4-0 in Glasnow’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 5-0 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rays are 4-0 in Glasnow’s last 4 starts.
Rays are 6-0 in Glasnow’s last 6 starts on grass.
Rays are 5-1 in Glasnow’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 4-1 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Rays are 1-4 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff home games.
Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff games.
Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 45-11 in their last 56 during game 1 of a series.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 38-13 in their last 51 home games.
Astros are 41-15 in their last 56 games following a win.
Astros are 46-17 in their last 63 games on grass.
Astros are 51-19 in their last 70 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 48-18 in their last 66 overall.
Astros are 37-14 in their last 51 games following an off day.
Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 50-20 in their last 70 Friday games.
Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 playoff home games.
Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. American League East.
Astros are 41-20 in their last 61 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games.
Astros are 4-0 in Verlander’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 home starts.
Astros are 10-3 in Verlander’s last 13 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 6-2 in Verlander’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 9-3 in Verlander’s last 12 Friday starts.
Astros are 20-7 in Verlander’s last 27 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 20-7 in Verlander’s last 27 starts with 5 days of rest.
Astros are 8-3 in Verlander’s last 11 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
Astros are 37-16 in Verlander’s last 53 starts.
Astros are 54-24 in Verlander’s last 78 starts on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 Divisional Playoff road games.
Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games following a win.
Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 overall.
Over is 5-1 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Rays last 9 Friday games.
Over is 15-5-1 in Rays last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 19-7 in Rays last 26 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 10-4 in Rays last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 9-4 in Rays last 13 on grass.
Over is 9-4-1 in Rays last 14 playoff road games.
Over is 9-4 in Rays last 13 vs. American League West.
Under is 2-0-2 in Glasnow’s last 4 Friday starts.
Under is 3-0-2 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-0-1 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Glasnow’s last 4 road starts.
Under is 3-0-2 in Glasnow’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1 in Glasnow’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-1-1 in Glasnow’s last 8 starts on grass.
Under is 8-2-2 in Glasnow’s last 12 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-2-3 in Glasnow’s last 12 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 14-4-4 in Glasnow’s last 22 starts overall.
Over is 6-1-1 in Astros last 8 vs. American League East.
Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 playoff games.
Over is 12-3-1 in Astros last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 8-2 in Astros last 10 Divisional Playoff home games.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 11-4-1 in Astros last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 19-7 in Astros last 26 Divisional Playoff games.
Over is 18-7-1 in Astros last 26 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 15-6-2 in Astros last 23 Friday games.
Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 12-5 in Astros last 17 home games.
Under is 7-3 in Astros last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-1 in Verlander’s last 5 Friday starts.
Under is 5-1 in Verlander’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Verlander’s last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-2-1 in Verlander’s last 10 home starts.
Under is 16-5-1 in Verlander’s last 22 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 8-3 in Verlander’s last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 10-4 in Verlander’s last 14 starts overall.
Over is 7-3-1 in Verlander’s last 11 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 9-4 in Verlander’s last 13 starts on grass.
Under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.
Rays are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Houston.
