Baltimore (2-1) at Pittsburgh (1-1-1)
When: Sunday, September 30th 2018
Where: Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -3/51
The AFC North seems to always go through Baltimore or Pittsburgh, and one of the best rivalries in the NFL will be on display in primetime as the Ravens visit the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens have had an easy time of it in their two home games, but the NFL’s fifth-ranked scoring defense allowed 34 to Cincinnati in their only road game thus far. Now they must face the second-ranked passing attack in Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, who are coming off a much-needed Monday night victory at Tampa Bay. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh is ranked 29th in total defense and 28th against the pass, but managed to intercept the red-hot Ryan Fitzpatrick three times on Monday. Pittsburgh leads the series 27-21 including playoffs and has followed a four-game losing streak vs. Baltimore with three straight victories. Last year at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh escaped with a 39-38 victory as Chris Boswell made a 46-yard field goal with 42 seconds left. Big Ben threw the ball 66 times and completed 44 for 506 yards and two scores. Le’Veon Bell ran for two scores and Antonio Brown had 213 yards receiving, but the former is still holding out. The Steelers have won six of the past 10 in the series as a favorite but covered only three of them. Nine of the past 13 meetings have been settled by four points or fewer.
Joe Flacco is having a nice comeback season after throwing for only 196.3 yards per game in 2017. The veteran is averaging exactly 100 yards more in the first three games while hooking-up with the trio of wide receivers signed in the offseason. Michael Crabtree has a team-high 15 catches while John Brown and Willie Snead have 12 apiece, but Baltimore is 26th in rushing. Alex Collins, who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards last season, is averaging only 38.7 yards a contest and ran for a season-high 68 yards and a TD in last week’s 27-14 victory over Denver. The Ravens lead the NFL in total defense (273.0 yards).
Brown has surpassed 100 receptions in each of the past five seasons and has 24 already through three games, but JuJu Smith-Schuster has emerged as the leading receiver with totals of 27 receptions and 356 yards. Roethlisberger rebounded from a five-turnover season opener against Cleveland with his second straight three-touchdown performance to earn AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Running back James Conner was great in Week 1, but took a step back in Week 2 before helping Pittsburgh close out last week’s 30-27 win over Tampa Bay. The Steelers rank 29th overall defensively but are tied for second in the NFL with 11.0 sacks.
Baltimore may have the better overall team, but this Pittsburgh offense is hard to stop, especially at home. Pittsburgh’s defense plays better at home and should be able to slow down the Ravens enough to get the win and cover.
Pick: Steelers -3
Betting Trends:
- Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Ravens are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. AFC North.
- Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
- Ravens are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Ravens are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
- Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Steelers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
- Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC North.
- Over is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 6-2 in Ravens last 8 road games.
- Under is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 games on grass.
- Under is 35-16-2 in Ravens last 53 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 vs. AFC.
- Over is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 vs. AFC North.
- Over is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 home games.
- Over is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 12-4 in Steelers last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Steelers last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.
