Baltimore (2-0) at Kansas City (2-0)
When: Sunday, September 22, 2019
Where: Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO
Time: 1:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Kansas City -6/52
The high-flying Kansas City Chiefs will take the field at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time since their gut-wrenching AFC Championship loss to the New England Patriots last January and will do it against a very surprising Baltimore Ravens squad. The Chiefs offense has picked up right where it left off last season with easy road wins over Jacksonville and Oakland, while scoring at least 25 points in an NFL record 24 consecutive games. Reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 821 yards and seven touchdowns while opting against using his legs all that much early on, while Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson has thrown for 596 yards and seven touchdowns with an additional 126 rushing yards through two games. The Ravens have picked apart to lowly teams in Miami and Arizona and are 10-4-1 against the spread in its last 15 games as the visiting team including a tough 27-24 overtime loss at Kansas City last season. Kansas City is 9-1 straight up over its last 10 home games, but just 6-4 ATS in those contests. The Chiefs opened as six-point favorites at pay per head sportsbooks and currently sit at 6.5 as of Friday afternoon.
Baltimore’s defense has held its first two opponents to an average of 13.5 points per game – fourth in the league – however, it’s hard to put too much stock in to wins over the tanking Dolphins and rebuilding Cardinals. Jackson and running back Mark Ingram, who has 154 yards and two touchdowns, form the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL through two weeks at 223.5 yards per contest. The Ravens also possess the league’s best run defense at 20.5 yards per game, but are 18th in pass defense after rookie Kyler Murray threw for 349 yards against them without getting intercepted.
Even without Tyreek Hill in the lineup, Mahomes went off for 443 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s win over the Raiders and has a ton of talented weapons around him at the skill positions. Kansas City will be without left tackle Eric Fisher (core muscle), so a reconfigured offensive line will have to try to protect Mahomes from a Ravens pass rush that has produced six sacks. Kansas City’s defense remains the weakest part of the team, ranking 20th in yards allowed (367.5) and 20th against the pass (262.5). The secondary allowed Gardner Minshew to go off in the second half of their Week 1 contest with the Jaguars, but held Oakland to 307 total yards last week.
We really don’t know how good this Baltimore team is yet after playing Miami and Arizona, but we do know that Kansas City is as explosive as ever. The Chiefs escaped in this matchup last season and they won’t let the Ravens hang around this time.
Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (More Week 3 Free Picks)
Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Ravens are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
Ravens are 19-7-4 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Ravens are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.
Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Chiefs are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games in Week 3.
Chiefs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Chiefs are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Ravens last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 36-14-2 in Ravens last 52 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Ravens last 7 vs. AFC.
Over is 6-0 in Chiefs last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in September.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-3 in Chiefs last 10 games overall.
Under is 50-23-1 in Chiefs last 74 home games.
Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
