Baltimore (11-3) at San Francisco (11-3)
When: Monday, December 25th, 2023
Where: Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, CA
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: San Francisco -5.5/45
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Week 16 of the NFL schedule will conclude with a monster matchup between a pair of 11-3 teams that could very well meet in Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers sit atop their respective conferences and control their destiny to earn home field advantage through the playoffs. The Niners and Ravens rank first and second in odds to win the Super Bowl, and quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson are 1-2 in the MVP odds.
This will be just the second Week 16 or later game since 1970 between teams tied for the best record in the league. The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense at 16.1 points per game, while the 49ers are right behind at 16.7. San Francisco is a 6-point home favorite in this matchup with a total of 46.5. The Ravens are coming off a 23-7 win over the Jaguars and have won four in a row. San Fran has won six straight after a 45-29 triumph at Arizona.
Baltimore leads the all-time series 5-2, including a 34-31 win in Super Bowl XLVII. That was the Harbaugh Bowl between brothers John and Jim. The last meeting came in December of 2019 when the Ravens won 20-17 at home. Jimmy Garoppolo started that one for San Fran, while Lamar Jackson passed for 105 yards and ran for 101.
The Ravens can clinch the AFC North with a win on Christmas and a Cleveland loss or tie on Sunday in Houston. Baltimore’s three losses this season have been by a combined 12 points with one in overtime. The team has led in the final two minutes in each of its 14 games, only the third team since 2000 to accomplish that. Jackson threw for 171 yards with a TD and pick and rushed for 97 yards in last week’s win over Jacksonville. He is on pace to average 200 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in a season for the third time. Rookie running back Keaton Mitchell, who averages 8.4 yards a carry, suffered a season-ending torn ACL last week.
Baltimore Ravens Injury Report [Week 16]
| Player | Pos. | Status/Updated |
|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | WR | Prob Mon - Foot - 12/20/23 |
| Jalyn Armour-Davis | CB | Ques Mon - Concussion - 12/22/23 |
| Arthur Maulet | CB | Ques Mon - Knee - 12/22/23 |
| Ronnie Stanley | OT | Ques Mon - Concussion - 12/22/23 |
| Marcus Williams | S | Ques Mon - Groin - 12/22/23 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | Ques Mon - Illness - 12/21/23 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB | I-R - Knee - 12/20/23 |
| Devin Duvernay | WR | Out indefinitely - Back - 12/12/23 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | I-R - Ankle - 11/25/23 |
| David Ojabo | LB | Out indefinitely - Ankle - 9/30/23 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | S | Out indefinitely - Chest - 9/19/23 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | I-R - Achilles - 9/12/23 |
| Malik Hamm | LB | Ques Mon - Lower Body - 12/19/23 |
| Trayvon Mullen | CB | Out indefinitely - Toe - 8/4/23 |
| Tyus Bowser | LB | Out indefinitely - Knee - 8/4/23 |
| Andrew Vorhees | OL | Out indefinitely - Knee - 7/21/23 |
The 49ers have already clinched their division and have won their last six games by double-digits and a +113 point differential. The Niners are 18-0 all-time including playoffs when QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Deebo Samuel are all healthy and play a full game. They also have won 17 straight regular-season games in November or later, tied for the longest streak all-time. Purdy has completed 69.8 percent of his attempts for 3,795 yards and a league-high 29 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. McCaffrey has a league-leading 1,292 rushing yards and 57 catches for 509 yards.
San Francisco 49ers Injury Report [Week 16]
| Player | Pos. | Status/Updated |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Burford | OL | Prob Mon - Knee - 12/22/23 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | Ques Mon - Concussion - 12/22/23 |
| Clelin Ferrell | DL | Ques Mon - Ankle - 12/22/23 |
| Oren Burks | LB | Ques Mon - Knee - 12/19/23 |
| Javon Hargrave | DL | Ques Mon - Hamstring - 12/19/23 |
| Ross Dwelley | TE | Ques Mon - Ankle - 12/19/23 |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | Ques Mon - Knee - 12/19/23 |
| Arik Armstead | DL | Ques Mon - Foot - 12/19/23 |
| Kalia Davis | DL | Out indefinitely - Ankle - 12/20/23 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud III | WR | Out indefinitely - Ribs - 12/9/23 |
| George Odum | S | I-R - Bicep - 11/27/23 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | S | I-R - Knee - 11/21/23 |
| Nick Zakelj | OL | I-R - Bicep - 11/15/23 |
| Drake Jackson | DL | Out indefinitely - Knee - 11/11/23 |
| Cameron Latu | TE | I-R - Knee - 8/29/23 |
| Danny Gray | WR | Out indefinitely - Shoulder - 8/30/23 |
I’m going to lay the six points with the 49ers in this one. If this game was in Baltimore, I might be on the Ravens. San Fran has been really good at home and their offense ranks second in passing and third in rushing. That’s a combination you don’t see often. All five of their home wins have come by at least 12 points. The Ravens have a solid defense, but this San Fran offense will prove to be too much for them.
Pick: 49ers -6
