Toronto (1-1) at Milwaukee (1-1)
When: Thursday, April 20th 2017
Where: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: NBA TV
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The Milwaukee Bucks took a big step in winning their first playoff series in 16 years when they stole Game 1 in Toronto and garnered a split in the first two contests with the Raptors. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the hero in the opener, hitting 13-of-18 shots, but was limited to 9-of-24 from the field in Game 2 despite recording 24 points and 15 rebounds. “He’s a heck of a player – you have to give it to him with the things he’s able to do out on the court,” Toronto All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan told reporters. Antetokounmpo is averaging 26 points and 11.5 rebounds in the series, but sees Toronto adjusting defensively to his play. Antetokounmpo could use a more consistent effort from shooting guard Khris Middleton, who scored 20 points in Game 2 after struggling to 10 on 4-of-15 shooting in the opener. Backup center Greg Monroe is averaging 16 points and 9.5 rebounds through two games. Shooting guard Malcolm Brogdon could use a rebound game as he went 3-of-11 from the field in Game 2 after scoring 16 points in Game 1 including four three-pointers. The Bucks were 23-18 at home this season – the same as Toronto’s road record.
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The Raptors regained momentum with a 106-100 victory in Game 2 and avoided being in a big hole heading to Milwaukee. Toronto All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry was the Game 2 hero by scoring 22 points after he recorded just four points on 2-of-11 shooting in the opener. He has traditionally struggled in the postseason and the Game 1 showing prompted reminders of last season’s poor postseason play. The Raptors were a sizzling 14-of-29 from 3-point range in Game 2 after going to 5-of-23 in the opener. Power forward Serge Ibaka nailed four 3-pointers in Game 2 to go along with a game-high +13 rating and is averaging 17.5 points and 10.5 rebounds in the series. Center Jonas Valanciunas was one of five Toronto players to score in double-figures in the Game 2 victory, recording a double-double (10 points, 10 boards). The Raptors have won seven of their last nine games overall going back to the regular season.
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The Raptors were one of the better road teams this season and I expect their experience and depth will trump the Bucks home court advantage in Game 3. Look for Lowry to have back-to-back solid games.
Pick: Raptors +1.5
ATS TRENDS
| Toronto |
- Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Raptors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Raptors are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 Conference Quarterfinals games.
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| Milwaukee |
- Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.
- Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
- Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
- Bucks are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Bucks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
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OU TRENDS
| Toronto |
- Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 Thursday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 12-3 in Raptors last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Under is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.
- Under is 16-5 in Raptors last 21 road games.
- Over is 5-2 in Raptors last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Under is 15-6 in Raptors last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
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| Milwaukee |
- Under is 4-0-1 in Bucks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 Thursday games.
- Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Bucks last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Bucks last 7 overall.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Bucks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 8-2-2 in Bucks last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Under is 16-4-1 in Bucks last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Bucks last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Under is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
- Under is 9-3 in Bucks last 12 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Under is 15-5-1 in Bucks last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4-1 in Bucks last 15 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 9-4 in Bucks last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Raptors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
- Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
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