Texas (45-46) at Baltimore (42-49)
When: Monday, July 17th 2017
Where: Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: FSN Southwest, MASN
Opening Odds: Baltimore -121/11
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The Baltimore Orioles will try and get back on track when they open a four-game series with the Texas Rangers on Monday night at Camden Yards. The Orioles were edged out on Friday night against the Cubs, then went on to lose the next two by a combined 18-3. It was Baltimore’s eighth loss in their last 10 games overall. Baltimore hitters struck out 14 times and managed three hits in Sunday’s 8-0 loss and two of their big hitters are slumping badly. 1B Chris Davis went 1-for-11 with five strikeouts in the series against the Cubs, while CF Adam Jones was 1-for-12 with four strikeouts. The Orioles are praying for a decent outing from Chris Tillman tonight, but he’s winless with an ERA of 8.80 over his last 10 starts. The Rangers were unable to complete a sweep at Kansas City to begin the second half, falling 4-3 on Sunday when a routine fly was lost in the sun in the bottom of the ninth to allow the Royals to score the winning run. Mike Napoli homered in the loss and has gone deep in six of 10 games this month. 3B Adrian Beltre needs seven hits to tie Sam Rice (2,987) for 31st on the all-time list. Second baseman Rougned Odor is 0-for-15 over his last four games.
Pitchers: Rangers – Andrew Cashner (4-7, 3.54 ERA) | Orioles – Chris Tillman (1-5, 7.90)
Andrew Cashner ended the first half on a high-note, allowing just two earned runs in seven innings to defeat Boston on July 5th. Cashner has not been as good on the road, posting a 4.37 ERA away from home as opposed to 2.50 in Arlington although he has yet to allow a home run in 45.1 road innings. Cashner pitched 7.1 strong innings in his only prior start against Baltimore in 2013, allowing one earned run in a no-decision at Camden Yards.
Tillman is looking for anything positive and his last outing was encouraging. He allowed two runs – his lowest total since his season debut May 7th – in five innings versus Tampa Bay on June 30th. Opponents are hitting .362 versus Tillman and have belted 11 home runs against him over his last seven starts. Tillman, who has been significantly better at home (5.88 ERA in seven starts versus 12.33 in four road outings) is 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his career versus Texas.
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I will not put any money on Tillman this year unless it’s to take the OVER in a game. I’m not even sure why he is favored in this game. He has one victory this season and the Orioles have lost three-straight. Cashner has been good enough this year to keep the Orioles bats in check.
Pick: Rangers +100
W/L TRENDS
| Texas |
- Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rangers are 7-17 in their last 24 vs. American League East.
- Rangers are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Rangers are 5-13 in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rangers are 1-7 in their last 8 Monday games.
- Rangers are 2-5 in Cashner’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Rangers are 2-6 in Cashner’s last 8 road starts.
|
| Baltimore |
- Orioles are 16-36 in their last 52 games on grass.
- Orioles are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Orioles are 6-20 in their last 26 vs. American League West.
- Orioles are 2-7 in their last 9 overall.
- Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 Monday games.
- Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
- Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Orioles are 8-1 in Tillman’s last 9 Monday starts.
- Orioles are 6-2 in Tillman’s last 8 starts with 16 or more days of rest.
- Orioles are 2-6 in Tillman’s last 8 starts.
- Orioles are 1-4 in Tillman’s last 5 home starts.
- Orioles are 1-6 in Tillman’s last 7 starts on grass.
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OU TRENDS
| Texas |
- Under is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 Monday games.
- Under is 11-3 in Rangers last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Rangers last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-2 in Rangers last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 14-6 in Rangers last 20 road games.
- Over is 9-4 in Rangers last 13 vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Cashner’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-1 in Cashner’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Cashner’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-2 in Cashner’s last 8 road starts.
- Under is 10-4 in Cashner’s last 14 starts overall.
- Under is 9-4 in Cashner’s last 13 starts on grass.
|
| Baltimore |
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 on grass.
- Over is 9-2 in Orioles last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 10-4-1 in Orioles last 15 home games.
- Under is 11-5 in Orioles last 16 vs. American League West.
- Under is 16-5 in Tillman’s last 21 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Tillman’s last 13 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Tillman’s last 9 home starts.
- Under is 20-8-1 in Tillman’s last 29 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 38-18-3 in Tillman’s last 59 starts overall.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Baltimore.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
- Rangers are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
- Rangers are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in Baltimore.
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