Texas (5-11) at Houston (10-5)
When: Sunday, April 15th 2018
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Houston -310/8.5
The Texas Rangers have a chance to do something that haven’t done yet this season – win a series – when they take on the Houston Astros from Minute Maid Park on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. The Rangers snapped a five-game losing streak with Saturday’s come-from-behind victory over Houston after they trailed 5-0 before rallying for a 6-5 win in 10 innings. Playing in just his second career game, Ronald Guzman homered in the eighth to tie it and then delivered an RBI infield hit in the 10th to provide the difference for Texas. Fellow rookie Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit his first major league homer in the fifth to start the comeback for Texas. Veteran Adrian Beltre also help keep the rally going with his first home run of the season and the 463rd of his career Saturday to move into a tie with Detroit 1B Miguel Cabrera for 35th on the all-time list. The Astros have dropped three of four since their 9-2 start, but will turn to right-hander Justin Verlander in the series finale opposite 44-year-old Bartolo Colon in a matchup of two pitchers with a combined 430 career wins. Houston’s Jose Altuve has hit safely in 13 of his last 14 games.
Pitchers: Rangers – Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.64 ERA) | Astros – Justin Verlander (2-0, 1.45)
Colon was solid in his season debut with six strong innings in a no-decision at Oakland before making two appearances out of the bullpen since then for Texas. Colon has struck out 10 and walked one through 11 innings on the season and opponents have only one extra-base hit against him. Altuve is 8-for-20 with a pair of doubles against Colon, who is 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA in his career versus Houston.
Verlander has picked up where he left off in November with three strong outings to start 2018. Two of his first three starts have been of the scoreless variety, including a seven-inning effort in a win at Minnesota on Monday. Verlander struck out nine batters in each of his last two starts and has 23 against four walks through his first 18.2 innings this season. He is 7-0 with a 1.20 ERA in eight starts since joining Houston last August, including six scoreless innings and a victory in his 2018 debut at Texas on March 29th.
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Of all the games on Sunday’s schedule, this is the least attractive betting wise, but its the Sunday night game, so everyone will be watching. Verlander may be the best pitcher in the game right now and this Texas lineup doesn’t stand a chance. The Astros’ offense is starting to come around lately with 16 runs over the last three games, so I have to go runline in this one, even though its still -150. I thought about the over, but Houston would probably have to score all nine runs to win that.
Pick: Astros -1.5 -150
BETTING TRENDS:
- Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Rangers are 6-14 in their last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rangers are 7-19 in their last 26 overall.
- Rangers are 7-19 in their last 26 games on grass.
- Rangers are 5-17 in their last 22 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Rangers are 3-13 in their last 16 Sunday games.
- Rangers are 3-14 in their last 17 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win.
- Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. American League West.
- Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 Sunday games.
- Astros are 23-6 in their last 29 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Astros are 39-15 in their last 54 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 36-15 in their last 51 games following a loss.
- Astros are 36-16 in their last 52 overall.
- Astros are 36-16 in their last 52 games on grass.
- Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 35-17 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 37-18 in their last 55 home games.
- Astros are 6-0 in Verlander’s last 6 starts vs. American League West.
- Astros are 6-0 in Verlander’s last 6 home starts.
- Astros are 12-1 in Verlander’s last 13 starts.
- Astros are 12-1 in Verlander’s last 13 starts on grass.
- Astros are 10-1 in Verlander’s last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Astros are 6-1 in Verlander’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 5-1 in Verlander’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 road games.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 10-2 in Rangers last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 9-4 in Rangers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Astros last 9 overall.
- Under is 7-2 in Astros last 9 on grass.
- Under is 19-6-2 in Astros last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 22-9-3 in Astros last 34 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Astros last 10 vs. American League West.
- Over is 44-21-5 in Astros last 70 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 33-16-2 in Astros last 51 Sunday games.
- Under is 35-17-3 in Astros last 55 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in Verlander’s last 6 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rangers are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.
