Philadelphia (51-39) at NY Mets (36-53)
When: Wednesday, July 11th 2018
Where: Citi Field, New York, NY
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: NBCS Philly, SNY
Opening Odds: New York -156/7
The Philadelphia Phillies will seek a series victory over the New York Mets, but they’ll have to do it against the league’s ERA leader in Jacob deGrom on Wednesday night at Citi Field. deGrom is the lone representative of the Mets, who are battling the Miami Marlins for the basement in the National League East, while the Phillies own first all by themselves after last night’s 7-3 victory. The Mets ace has been plagued by a lack of offensive support to sport just a 5-4 mark despite leading the majors with a 1.79 ERA. Maikel Franco homered for the second time this series to highlight a four-RBI performance in Tuesday’s triumph for Philadelphia, and he’s 11-for-25 with seven RBIs since batting out of the No. 8 spot in the lineup. The Phillies have won 10 of 13 contests overall to climb ahead of the Atlanta Braves by a game. New York has scored just eight runs while losing four of its last five games overall and 19 of its last 23 at Citi Field. Amed Rosario recorded two triples to highlight a three-hit performance on Tuesday after a 1-for-17 skid. Philadelphia outfielder Nick Williams recorded his second three-hit performance of the series to improve to 10-for-24 with two homers, seven RBIs and four runs scored in his last seven games.
Pitchers: Phillies – Vince Velasquez (5-8, 4.69 ERA) | Mets – Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.79)
Velasquez will look to regain his form that he had earlier in the season when he makes his first start since getting drilled on the right forearm by a line drive June 30th. Velasquez threw left-handed to get the out at first base before departing that game, but he is just 1-4 in his last eight starts. He is 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA in six career starts against the Mets.
The tough-luck season continues for deGrom and probably will until he gets traded, possibly after the All-Star Break. He is 1-4 in his last nine outings despite allowing just 15 runs in 64 innings over that span. deGrom allowed just one run on four hits over eight innings of a no-decision against Tampa Bay on Friday in his latest outing. He threw 45 pitches in one inning before being removed as a precaution versus Philadelphia on May 13th, but is 6-1 in 12 career starts against them.
The Mets should win every game that deGrom pitches, but they don’t because they are terrible. New York is 7-11 when deGrom starts and 3-6 at home. Velasquez has been a much better pitcher on the road and I think he has a solid outing and Philadelphia ekes out a victory.
Pick: Phillies +145
BETTING TRENDS:
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 overall.
- Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 games on grass.
- Phillies are 12-4 in their last 16 Wednesday games.
- Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
- Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Phillies are 4-10 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
- Phillies are 5-1 in Velasquez’s last 6 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
- Phillies are 2-5 in Velasquez’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 2-6 in Velasquez’s last 8 starts.
- Phillies are 2-6 in Velasquez’s last 8 starts on grass.
- Mets are 16-35 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 19-43 in their last 62 overall.
- Mets are 18-42 in their last 60 games on grass.
- Mets are 26-64 in their last 90 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 4-10 in their last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. National League East.
- Mets are 7-18 in their last 25 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mets are 9-25 in their last 34 home games.
- Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Mets are 2-9 in their last 11 Wednesday games.
- Mets are 5-2 in deGrom’s last 7 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Mets are 2-7 in deGrom’s last 9 starts.
- Mets are 2-7 in deGrom’s last 9 starts on grass.
- Mets are 2-8 in deGrom’s last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Mets are 1-4 in deGrom’s last 5 home starts.
- Mets are 1-4 in deGrom’s last 5 Wednesday starts.
- Mets are 1-5 in deGrom’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Mets are 1-6 in deGrom’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 0-8 in deGrom’s last 8 starts vs. National League East.
- Mets are 0-5 in deGrom’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Phillies last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-1 in Phillies last 8 on grass.
- Under is 7-1 in Phillies last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 12-2-2 in Phillies last 16 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League East.
- Under is 9-4 in Phillies last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 Wednesday starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 road starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Mets last 5 overall.
- Under is 12-3 in Mets last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 on grass.
- Under is 13-4 in Mets last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-2 in Mets last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 vs. National League East.
- Under is 5-2 in Mets last 7 Wednesday games.
- Under is 16-7 in Mets last 23 home games.
- Under is 9-4-1 in Mets last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-0-1 in deGrom’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 7-2 in deGrom’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-3-1 in deGrom’s last 14 starts on grass.
- Under is 10-3-1 in deGrom’s last 14 starts overall.
- Under is 8-3-1 in deGrom’s last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-2 in deGrom’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in deGrom’s last 7 home starts.
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Mets are 10-2 in deGrom’s last 12 starts vs. Phillies.
- Mets are 5-1 in deGrom’s last 6 home starts vs. Phillies.
- Over is 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts vs. Mets.
- Over is 45-21-2 in the last 68 meetings in New York.
- Phillies are 27-59 in the last 86 meetings.
- Phillies are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in New York.
- Phillies are 1-4 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts vs. Mets.
