Philadelphia (76-72) at Atlanta (93-58)
When: Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Where: SunTrust Park,
Cumberland, GA
Time: 7:20 ET | TV: NBCS Philadelphia,
FS Southeast
Opening Odds: Atlanta -185/10
The Philadelphia Phillies are running out of time in this year’s wild card race and begin an absolute brutal stretch of games Tuesday night with the first of three at the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. It begins an 11-game road trip for the Phillies, who will also play at Cleveland and Washington before wrapping-up the season with three at home versus Miami. Philadelphia enters Monday’s action trailing the Chicago Cubs by 4.5 games for the second NL wild card after getting swept in two games at home to the Boston Red Sox over the weekend. Frustration is setting in for this club, who lost manager Gabe Kapler and Bryce Harper to ejections in Sunday’s 6-3 setback. The Phillies were 33-22 on May 29th and led the NL East by 3.5 games, but are 43-50 since. Atlanta’s magic number to clinch the division is down to four entering Monday and haven’t played anyone other than the Phillies and Nationals in the past 10 days. The Braves took two of three from Washington over the weekend, despite getting shutout in Sunday’s finale 7-0 and split four with Philadelphia last week at Citizen’s Bank Park. Atlanta’s next home run will break the franchise record of 235 (2003) as three Braves approach 40 homers – Ronald Acuna Jr. (39), Freddie Freeman (38) and third Josh Donaldson (37).
Pitchers: Phillies – Vince Velasquez (6-7, 4.95 ERA) | Braves – Dallas Keuchel (8-5, 3.35)
Velasquez has surrendered three runs or more in four of his last six starts including four over 4.1 innings at the New York Mets last time and received a no-decision. Velasquez, who has bounced back and forth from the bullpen, has seen the seventh inning just once all season and is 5-6 with a 5.01 ERA in 20 starts. The Phillies have lost his last six starts against Atlanta including a 15-1 loss on June 16th in which he allowed four runs on five hits over 2.2 innings.
Keuchel has been on cruise control since a rough outing at Miami on August 8th, allowing two runs or less in each of his six starts since. He’s coming off a one-run performance over six innings at Philadelphia last week after shutting out the Nationals over six innings the start before. Keuchel has a 0.97 ERA with 12 walks, 35 strikeouts and four runs allowed in his last 37 innings and is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings against Philadelphia this season.
The Phillies have faced Keuchel four times in his career and have never scored more than two runs against him including just last week at home. Keuchel is in top form right now and Velasquez has struggled all season. I don’t see the Phillies being a threat in this contest.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Tuesday. He is 129-88 +2828 units on the season after a 30-15 run!
Pick: Braves -1.5 -105
BETTING TRENDS:
Phillies are 12-2 in their last 14 Tuesday games.
Phillies are 7-15 in their last 22 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Phillies are 7-16 in their last 23 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Phillies are 5-1 in Velasquez’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts.
Phillies are 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts on grass.
Phillies are 5-2 in Velasquez’s last 7 road starts.
Phillies are 12-25 in Velasquez’s last 37 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 4-10 in Velasquez’s last 14 starts during game 1 of a series.
Phillies are 2-5 in Velasquez’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 3-10 in Velasquez’s last 13 Tuesday starts.
Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games following an off day.
Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 13-4 in their last 17 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Braves are 12-4 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 21-8 in their last 29 games following a loss.
Braves are 25-10 in their last 35 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 Tuesday games.
Braves are 44-19 in their last 63 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Braves are 43-19 in their last 62 vs. National League East.
Braves are 38-17 in their last 55 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 49-22 in their last 71 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 37-17 in their last 54 home games.
Braves are 59-28 in their last 87 games on grass.
Braves are 60-29 in their last 89 overall.
Braves are 35-17 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Braves are 51-25 in their last 76 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 5-0 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Braves are 5-0 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
Braves are 5-0 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 5-0 in Keuchel’s last 5 home starts.
Braves are 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Braves are 6-0 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts.
Braves are 6-0 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts on grass.
Braves are 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 2-5 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 6-1-1 in Phillies last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Phillies last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 13-4 in Phillies last 17 games following an off day.
Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League East.
Under is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 5-2-1 in Phillies last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 6-1 in Velasquez’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Velasquez’s last 5 starts overall.
Under is 6-2 in Velasquez’s last 8 starts with 8 or more days of rest.
Under is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 games following a loss.
Under is 8-2-1 in Braves last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 7-2 in Braves last 9 games following an off day.
Under is 6-2 in Braves last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 18-6-2 in Braves last 26 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 19-7-1 in Braves last 27 home games.
Over is 5-2-1 in Braves last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Over is 5-2 in Braves last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 17-7-1 in Braves last 25 on grass.
Under is 18-8-1 in Braves last 27 overall.
Under is 11-5-1 in Braves last 17 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 11-5-1 in Braves last 17 vs. National League East.
Under is 7-0-1 in Keuchel’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 6-1 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 5-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 8-2 in Keuchel’s last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 12-3-1 in Keuchel’s last 16 starts on grass.
Under is 12-3-1 in Keuchel’s last 16 starts overall.
Under is 3-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2-1 in Keuchel’s last 8 home starts.
Over is 4-0 in Velasquez’s last 4 road starts vs. Braves.
Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in Velasquez’s last 6 starts vs. Braves.
Phillies are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings in Atlanta.
Phillies are 0-6 in Velasquez’s last 6 starts vs. Braves.
Phillies are 0-5 in Velasquez’s last 5 road starts vs. Braves.
