Philadelphia (38-31) at Atlanta (41-29)
When: Saturday, June 15th, 2019
Where: SunTrust Park,
Cumberland, GA
Time: 7:20 ET | TV: FS South,
NBCS Philadelphia
Opening Odds: Atlanta -105/9.5
The Atlanta Braves are starting to make a habit of late-inning comebacks and they did it again on Friday, rallying from deficits of 6-2 and 8-4 to win for the fourth time this season when trailing after eight innings. The victims this time around were the Philadelphia Phillies, who not only blew a golden opportunity to pull with a half-game of first place, but gave us a tough loss on our Daily MLB Free Picks. We head right back to this big matchup for Saturday as Aaron Nola opposes Sean Newcomb in the middle game of their weekend series. Braves catcher Brian McCann blooped a two-run single in the bottom of the ninth Friday, locking up a 9-8 victory that extended Atlanta’s lead over the Phillies in the NL East to 2.5 games. McCann finished with three hits and three RBI to help Atlanta to their 23rd win over the past 32 games. First baseman Freddie Freeman hit his 19th homer of the season to give him 20 homers and 88 RBIs in 150 career games against the Phillies. Philadelphia’s slide continued, falling for the ninth time in its past 14 games by allowing seven runs in the final three innings. Center fielder Scott Kingery went 3-for-4 with two runs scored in the opener, finishing a triple shy of the cycle to give him seven hits in 15 at-bats in his last four games. Bryce Harper blasted a two-run homer in the third inning to give him 28 dingers in 116 career games against the Braves.
Pitchers: Phillies – Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.58 ERA) | Braves – Sean Newcomb (1-0, 2.59)
Nola has been a little inconsistent all season, but still owns a 6-1 mark despite a high ERA thanks to 6.5 runs of support per game. The righty is coming off a solid May in which he went 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in six starts while averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s had mixed results in his first two starts of June, allowing six runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings at San Diego, then holding Cincinnati to three runs on four hits with seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings Sunday. Nola has held the Braves to three runs or less in each of the last nine starts – one homer allowed – against them and the Phillies have won six of those contests dating back to 2016.
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With Kevin Gausman on the Injured List (right plantar fasciitis), and newly signed Dallas Keuchel on his way to the rotation soon, Newcomb could be in for just a spot start here. He has not had much success as a starter but the bullpen seems to suit him. Newcomb has walked only two with 21 strikeouts and a 1.42 ERA in 19 innings across 16 relief outings. Newcomb earned the win, allowing one hit with no walks and six strikeouts in 4.2 innings while replacing Gausman on Monday against Pittsburgh.
We really should have won this pick last night, but the Phillies bullpen melted down. Give the Braves credit, though, because they never give up and have a lot of momentum right now. I’m going to take the Phillies again here, thinking Nola – who has good numbers versus Atlanta – will go deep enough to avoid having the bullpen blow another one. The Phillies hit lefty Fried last night and should do the same against Newcomb on Saturday.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Saturday. He is 79-50 +2128 units on the season after a 29-12 run!
Pick: Phillies -105
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BETTING TRENDS:
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games.
Phillies are 25-8 in their last 33 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. National League East.
Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 31-72 in their last 103 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 2-6 in their last 8 road games.
Phillies are 2-6 in their last 8 games following a loss.
Phillies are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 5-16 in their last 21 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 4-0 in Nola’s last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
Phillies are 4-0 in Nola’s last 4 Saturday starts.
Phillies are 4-0 in Nola’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 5-1 in Nola’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-1 in Nola’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Phillies are 6-2 in Nola’s last 8 starts.
Phillies are 6-2 in Nola’s last 8 starts on grass.
Phillies are 21-8 in Nola’s last 29 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Phillies are 7-3 in Nola’s last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 1-4 in Nola’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 0-4 in Nola’s last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a win.
Braves are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 Saturday games.
Braves are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Braves are 10-3 in their last 13 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 24-8 in their last 32 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 23-8 in their last 31 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 23-9 in their last 32 overall.
Braves are 23-9 in their last 32 games on grass.
Braves are 25-10 in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Braves are 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 home starts.
Braves are 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts.
Braves are 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts on grass.
Braves are 9-2 in Newcomb’s last 11 starts vs. National League East.
Braves are 5-11 in Newcomb’s last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 1-4 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Braves are 1-5 in Newcomb’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 0-4 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 Saturday games.
Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 games following a loss.
Over is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 18-6 in Phillies last 24 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-3-1 in Phillies last 12 vs. National League East.
Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 7-3 in Phillies last 10 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 6-0 in Nola’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Over is 5-0 in Nola’s last 5 road starts.
Over is 5-0 in Nola’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Nola’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-1 in Nola’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 6-1-1 in Nola’s last 8 Saturday starts.
Over is 5-1 in Nola’s last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 4-1 in Nola’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
Over is 11-3 in Nola’s last 14 starts on grass.
Over is 11-3 in Nola’s last 14 starts overall.
Under is 19-6-3 in Nola’s last 28 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 9-1-1 in Braves last 11 games following a win.
Over is 7-1 in Braves last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Braves last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 13-3-1 in Braves last 17 home games.
Over is 8-2-1 in Braves last 11 vs. National League East.
Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 15-5-1 in Braves last 21 overall.
Over is 15-5-1 in Braves last 21 on grass.
Over is 19-7 in Braves last 26 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Braves last 10 Saturday games.
Over is 6-0 in Newcomb’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 6-1 in Newcomb’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-1 in Newcomb’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Over is 9-3-1 in Newcomb’s last 13 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Newcomb’s last 7 Saturday starts.
Phillies are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Phillies are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta.
