Philadelphia (9-5) at Atlanta (8-6)
When: Monday, April 16th 2018
Where: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA
Time: 7:35 ET | TV: NBCS Philadelphia Plus, FS Southeast
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -128/8
The Philadelphia Phillies have seemed to put their early season woes behind them as they climb back up the NL East standings and will continue their six-game road trip with the first of three in Atlanta against the Braves on Monday night. Philadelphia opened the season in Atlanta and allowed 27 runs in losing two of three, while first-year manager Gabe Kapler made a few head-scratching moves in his first series. The Phillies have won six games in a row and have allowed three or fewer runs in five of their last 11 games since leaving Atlanta. Rookie Scott Kingery has been swinging a hot bat for Philadelphia, driving in 12 runs in the last eight games, and blasting a three-run double to help Philadelphia take care of Tampa Bay 10-4 on Sunday. Philadelphia scored four runs in the third inning Sunday, and so far this season have 39 runs in the opening three innings combined as compared to 40 runs scored the rest of the game. The Braves, who were rained out Sunday after blowing an eight-run lead to the Cubs Saturday, finished 4-4 on the three-city, eight-game road trip against three teams that reached the playoffs last season and are 8-6 on the season. They will open a seven-game homestand with the Phillies on Monday that will also see the first-place New York Mets come to town later this week. Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies has five games with multiple extra-base hits this season, and leads the majors with 14 total (eight doubles, one triple, five homers). Atlanta is averaging 5.9 runs per game on the season while the Phillies have scored 6.2 runs per game during their current winning streak.
Pitchers: Phillies – Aaron Nola (1-0, 1.96 ERA) | Braves – Julio Teheran (0-1, 7.07)
Aaron Nola was involved in one of Kapler’s questionable decisions in the first game of the year in Atlanta. Nola was cruising against the Braves, allowing one run on three hits in 5.1 innings before being removed after 68 pitches in a game Atlanta would rally to win. Nola was allowed to throw 103 pitches last time out to pick up his first win of the season Tuesday against Cincinnati, allowing one run on three hits in eight innings with six strikeouts. He has held opponents to a .161 batting average and just two extra-base hits through three starts.
Julio Teheran opposed Nola in the season opener and gave up four runs on four hits in 5.2 innings against the Phillies as his struggles at home continued. In 19 career games at SunTrust Park, Teheran is 3-10 with a 6.20 ERA and 21 homers allowed in 101.2 innings. He gave up three blasts in 2.1 innings at home against Washington on April 3rd, but pitched well in an April 9th loss at Washington, giving up two runs on five hits in six innings.
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Both of these offenses have been good this season, so this matchup really comes down to the pitching. Teheran has not been good and is historically bad at home, while Nola is solidifying his presence as the ace of this Phillies staff. You won’t see Kapler pulling him early this time around. Phillies will extend their winning streak to seven – longest since 2012.
Pick: Phillies -130
BETTING TRENDS:
- Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Phillies are 32-67 in their last 99 road games.
- Phillies are 28-69 in their last 97 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Phillies are 18-46 in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 15-42 in their last 57 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Phillies are 10-4 in Nola’s last 14 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Phillies are 6-13 in Nola’s last 19 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 2-7 in Nola’s last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Phillies are 1-4 in Nola’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Phillies are 1-5 in Nola’s last 6 starts vs. National League East.
- Phillies are 1-6 in Nola’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Phillies are 0-5 in Nola’s last 5 road starts.
- Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Braves are 1-10 in their last 11 Monday games.
- Braves are 4-0 in Teheran’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 4-0 in Teheran’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 10-1 in Teheran’s last 11 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Braves are 5-1 in Teheran’s last 6 home starts.
- Braves are 7-3 in Teheran’s last 10 starts.
- Braves are 7-3 in Teheran’s last 10 starts on grass.
- Braves are 1-7 in Teheran’s last 8 Monday starts.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Phillies last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 8-2 in Phillies last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Phillies last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 13-5-1 in Phillies last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Nola’s last 5 Monday starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Nola’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 9-2-2 in Nola’s last 13 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1 in Nola’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-1 in Nola’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Nola’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 3-0-3 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-3 in Braves last 6 home games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 on grass.
- Over is 21-8-3 in Braves last 32 Monday games.
- Over is 20-8-1 in Braves last 29 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 37-15-2 in Braves last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Braves last 11 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Teheran’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Teheran’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Teheran’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Teheran’s last 9 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 15-5-1 in Teheran’s last 21 starts on grass.
- Under is 15-5-1 in Teheran’s last 21 starts overall.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Teheran’s last 13 home starts.
- Over is 16-6-1 in Teheran’s last 23 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Teheran’s last 8 Monday starts.
- Under is 33-16-2 in Teheran’s last 51 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings in Atlanta.
- Braves are 9-3 in Teheran’s last 12 starts vs. Phillies.
- Braves are 5-2 in Teheran’s last 7 home starts vs. Phillies.
- Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
- Phillies are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.
