Phillies @ Dodgers Preview and Pick

Opening Line: Dodgers -130

The teams with the best two records in Baseball finish off their entertaining four-game series tonight. The Philadelphia Phillies look to bounce back from Brad Lidge’s back-to-back blow saves and salvage a split with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies took the opener on Thursday behind Cole Hamels’ complete game shutout. On Friday, Lidge gave up the game-winning hit to Andre Eithier after Pedro Feliz booted an easy grounder that would have ended the game. Yesterday, Rafael Furcal slammed a game-tying homer off Lidge in the 9th inning and the Dodgers went on to win in the 12th on Eithier’s second homer of the game.

The Phils turn to rookie Antonio Bastardo Sunday night. Bastardo made his Major League debut on Tuesday and held the Padres to 1 run in 6 innings. The Dodgers go with Randy Wolf. The veteran left-hander has a 3-1 record and 3.21 ERA. The Dodgers have won Wolf’s last 5 starts despite his 4.66 ERA. Wolf has only faced his former team twice and has faired well. He’s only allowed 3 ER in 12 innings.

The Phillies heavy left-handed lineup has been very good this year against left-handed starters, posting a 14-5 record. The Dodgers are 13-5 vs. lefties and hold the best home record in the League at 22-7. The Phils are a remarkable 20-8 on the road despite their two straight loses.  Wolf had been relying on good run support to help his team win his last 5 starts, but the Dodgers are in a bit of a slump at the plate. LA is facing a guy they don’t know a whole lot about, so it could take a few times around the lineup to get comfortable against Bastardo. I’m looking for the Phils to pull out another close game. I just hope the don’t decide to use Lidge for a third straight day to try and close it out.
 
Pick: Phillies +120

Here are some other trends to consider in this game:

Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series.
Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 overall.
Phillies are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 37-16 in their last 53 vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 36-16 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Phillies are 56-25 in their last 81 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Phillies are 11-5 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Phillies are 17-8 in their last 25 vs. National League West.
Phillies are 63-30 in their last 93 Sunday games.
Phillies are 35-17 in their last 52 road games.
Phillies are 55-27 in their last 82 games on grass.
Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Road team is 8-0 in Randazzos last 8 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
Road team is 4-1 in Randazzos last 5 games behind home plate vs. Philadelphia.
Road team is 7-3 in Randazzos last 10 Sunday games behind home plate.

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