Penn State (7-0, 4-0) at Ohio State (6-1, 4-0)
When: Saturday, October 28th 2017
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Ohio State -7/57.5
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In what is probably the pivotal Big Ten Conference game of the season, the sixth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes host the No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday afternoon in Columbus. Last year in State College, Penn State pulled off the huge upset over the Buckeyes that propelled them to a Big Ten East title and Rose Bowl berth thanks to a fourth-quarter rally capped by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. The Lions enter this matchup coming off an emphatic 42-13 pasting over then-No. 15 Michigan and once again can position themselves nicely for another East Division title if they can take care of Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been pounding opponents since their early loss at home to Oklahoma, winning five in a row by an average of 42 points, and they are coming off a bye week that should have them well-rested and prepared. Ohio State has recorded at least 500 yards of offense in each of those five straight wins, the longest stretch in program history, and it enters the week tied for the FBS lead in scoring (47.3).
The Penn State offense was clicking against the top-ranked defense of the Wolverines as quarterback Trace McSorley threw for 282 yards and a touchdown while scoring three times on the ground, and running back Saquon Barkley had two rushing TDs to go along with a juggling reception for a third score. Ohio State’s top-rated offense will be tested by the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (9.6), led by senior linebacker Jason Cabinda, who had 12 tackles, a half-sack and a forced fumble last week. Senior wide receiver DaeSean Hamilton has 17 catches for 272 yards and three TDs over the last three games and needs nine yards to move into third place on the school’s all-time list.
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Senior J.T. Barrett ranks second to McSorley in the Big Ten in passing yards with 1,838 and had threw for 245 yards and a score on 28-of-43 passing in last year’s matchup. Barrett has been hot of late, throwing 18 TD passes with no interceptions during the team’s five-game run. The rushing attack is led by J.K. Dobbins, who has 775 yards and five TDs for the Big Ten’s top team in yards per carry (6.0). The defensive stats have improved greatly during their streak, ranking 10th overall in scoring (15.4), and 16th in overall defense (305.3). Ohio State had won 11 of the previous 14 meetings prior to last year’s loss.
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Yes, Ohio State has looked terrific since the Oklahoma loss, but they haven’t played anyone. We’re talking teams that are ranked outside the top 84 (UNLV, Rutgers). Revenge in College sports is a big intangible as we saw last week when Penn State turned the tables on Michigan. Ohio State will fare better than the Wolverines and come out on top in this one, but it will come down to the end. Take the points.
Pick: Penn State +6.5
TRENDS:
- Nittany Lions are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
- Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
- Nittany Lions are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
- Nittany Lions are 8-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nittany Lions are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Nittany Lions are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
- Nittany Lions are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.
- Nittany Lions are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Nittany Lions are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games on fieldturf.
- Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Buckeyes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Buckeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2 in Nittany Lions last 11 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Nittany Lions last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last 7 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Buckeyes last 5 conference games.
- Over is 7-3 in Buckeyes last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Ohio State.
- Nittany Lions are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Ohio State.
